Returning to Parliament could be the biggest risk of Andy Burnham's career
The power and influence Andy Burnham currently holds as the Mayor of Greater Manchester should not be underestimated, writes Josh Bancroft
A path appears to be clearing for former Health Secretary and current Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to return to parliament.
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The MP for Gorton and Denton, Andrew Gwynne, is expected to stand down on health grounds, triggering a by-election that will likely be held on the same day as local elections in May.
The speculation around Burnham returning to the Commons has been going on for months and he has done little to dampen it. But far from being a done deal, running for the seat could be the riskiest political decision Burnham has ever made.
Historically, by-elections can have surprising results. George Galloway's win in Rochdale is a good example of that, and low turnout can also cause upsets. But before Burnham even faces voters, he must be vetted by the Labour Party National Executive Committee, which (perhaps unsurprisingly) is made up of people who are generally loyal to Sir Keir Starmer. Assuming he makes it and is selected, he then has to beat off Reform to win the seat, and if he does indeed want to challenge Starmer, he must go on to win a leadership contest and a general election.
The power and influence Andy Burnham currently holds as the Mayor of Greater Manchester should not be underestimated. He has political control over billions of pounds and the fastest-growing city region in England, with little opposition.
He's able to act quickly without going through layers of bureaucracy, and all the while, he has the freedom to speak his mind. In terms of building something quickly and leaving a legacy, he couldn't ask for much more.
Of course, politics is not just about service. Ambition (and perhaps a bit of ego) is probably behind Andy Burnham not flat-out denying he's interested in the top job.
But with all that considered, and knowing Nigel Farage will do all he can to leave Andy Burnham with egg on his face, is running in Gorton and Denton worth it? I'm not sure.
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Josh Bancroft has been working as a broadcast journalist in the North West for more than a decade.
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