The pendulum swings right as Britain’s political centre collapses

It is the unstoppable swing of the pendulum of politics from the far left all the way to the right. It will swing as far as it can go despite Labour, Green, LibDem and lots of Conservative politicians trying to stop it, leaning in with all their political weight.

But the vacuum on the right left by the Conservative Party’s departure to the centre left under “New Labor Conservative” David Cameron and all the successive Conservative Leaders trying to cope with Cameron’s 2010 intake, is so vast that with Reform being the only right of centre party, this vacuum is pulling in voters with a force that will define our politics for a generation.

The Brexit vote delivered by the British people 10 years ago was a very clear mandate to take the country in a very different direction. The vote was held only a year after the Conservatives were handed a decisive victory by the voters who put their trust in the Conservative manifesto and the Party’s 200-year-old competence record. However, this vote was misread. It is a credit to the British people and their sensible, patient nature to give subsequent Conservative governments a chance to deliver on their promises. To stop telling the people that they are racist, ignorant, extremist and too stupid for having been hoodwinked by a sign on a side of a bus.

No pandemic, European war, or crisis in the Gulf could have done as much damage to any political party as their refusal to follow simple instructions, with no idea what to do. In the end, Labour benefited from staying tactically quiet on the EU, the economy and the growing culture clashes playing out in London and all the major cities. Voters angry with the Conservatives used Labour as a vehicle for protest, delivering an election result that all but decimated the Conservatives and many of their Remainers.

It doesn’t look like any of the political parties today have a clear idea of what to do with the economy, but at least Reform, with its common-sense, back-to-basics approach, shows promise. They have not outlined any specific economic policy, but neither have the Conservatives. Labour’s economic incompetence also has no credible rebuttal to counter Reform’s rallying cry of “wanting our country back”.

Reform has been strong in speaking clearly on illegal immigration, government waste, the EU and its Bill of Rights and freedom of speech. Aside from the economy, this is exactly what British voters are worried about. While Kemi Badenoch is gaining strength and doesn’t lack the right convictions, she has so far offered little on the economy, which is the only issue that could truly propel her beyond Nigel Farage. Voters have not heard an apology from the Tories for sabotaging Brexit. Whether Kemi even has a sufficiently changed party to support her in confronting those failures still remains unclear, with the old guard still in charge of what remains of the parliamentary party.

This swing to the right is not unique to the UK. The patience of voters and their tolerance of the extreme left agenda have snapped across the globe. The US Democratic Party is in shambles, and don’t be fooled if they regain the lower or upper house in the midterms. It is a typical dynamic. What is certain is that the next administration and potentially the one after that will be Republican.

Hungary replaced an old, corrupt right-winger with a younger right-wing politician from the same rootstock, but who will unlock much-needed EU aid and stop blocking Ukraine packages. Poland, Germany and even France are all moving towards the right, with the French election pretty much pre-determined to go to anyone who is just not as far right as the Front Nationale.

With 85 Labour MPs now publicly challenging Starmer’s leadership, Junior Minister for Devolution, Faith and Communities, Miatta Fahnbulleh, resigning and urging Starmer to “do the right thing” by setting a timetable for transition, and even Cabinet ministers reportedly urging him to do the same, his position is very uncertain indeed.

Andy Burnham, with his traditionally Red following, Wes Streeting, with his good media skills representing the outnumbered moderates, and the Unions’ darling Angela Rayner, are all vying to replace Starmer. But none of them has any idea how to balance the books.

Even if Starmer survives, he will be a lame-duck PM, having to go further left to appease his internal critics. This inevitable direction will only result in a stronger voter swing to the right, and the first party to come up with a credible plan on the economy, immigration, tax reform, and reinstatement of law and order will win the next election.

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Lubov Chernukhin is a British-Russian businesswoman, philanthropist and investor.

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