Russia could attack Nato within weeks as US intelligence warns Putin may seek ‘new victory’ after Ukraine failures

Want LBC stories before everyone else? Set us as your Preferred Source on Google

Vladimir Putin may attempt to test Nato’s resolve with a small land incursion or cyber attack at some point between this autumn and 2029, US officials told the Wall Street Journal.

Col Martin O’Donnell, a spokesperson for Nato, said the alliance was “ready to deter and defend as necessary”, adding that it was “always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios”.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Russia was planning a possible armed provocation on Polish soil to test Nato’s resolve, according to warnings reportedly passed from the United States to Warsaw.

Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by drones or missiles, while Russian or Belarusian troops could even cross into Nato territory from Kaliningrad or Belarus, security sources have warned.

Read more: Russia ‘planning attack on Poland’ to test whether Nato will really fight, US warns

Read more: UK issues fresh sanctions against 19 Russian targets including banks and shadow fleet tankers

The plot was reported by Polish outlet Onet, which said Washington had issued several warnings to Poland about possible Russian plans. Sources close to Polish president Karol Nawrocki reportedly said the threat could emerge within months.

The US “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on Nato’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded”, a source close to the Polish president said.

The aim, according to those briefed on the warnings, would be to escalate tensions inside Nato and pressure Western allies into suspending military support for Ukraine.

Polish security sources have not ruled out a limited ground incursion by Russian or Belarusian forces along Nato’s eastern flank.

Possible scenarios are said to include drone attacks on power stations, simulated air strikes designed to trigger Poland’s air defence systems, or a so-called “hybrid attack” in a border region.

The news comes just one day after LBC reported Putin's shadow fleet has been used to launch drones to carry out surveillance of military and nuclear sites across the UK and Europe.

One Polish intelligence source reportedly said Russian or Belarusian soldiers could stray into Polish territory and later claim it was accidental, blaming GPS failure or a rescue operation for a malfunctioning aircraft.

Moscow’s plan, according to Polish sources, would be that Poland and its allies might be pushed into talks rather than responding militarily.

If Russian troops then withdrew after negotiations, rather than after being forced out, it could be presented by the Kremlin as a strategic win. Western support for Ukraine could even be raised as a Russian demand in return for withdrawal.

A source close to the Polish president said the US was “systematically” informing Poland about new Russian plans for a potential conventional attack on Nato’s eastern flank.

A Polish defence ministry source and a diplomat from another Nato country also reportedly confirmed that a provocation against Poland or one of the Baltic states was being treated as a serious risk.

A Baltic security source said that similar plans were being discussed in Moscow, with Russia potentially seeking to blame Ukraine afterwards.

Any ground-based operation could be launched from Kaliningrad, the heavily militarised Russian exclave north of Poland, or from Belarus, which remains closely aligned with Vladimir Putin’s regime.

Western security sources believe Russia does not currently have the capacity for a full-scale war with Nato while its forces remain heavily committed in Ukraine.

But they fear Moscow could attempt a smaller, deniable operation designed to expose divisions inside the alliance without triggering a broader war.

Poland has been one of Ukraine’s most important supporters since Russia’s full-scale invasion, but relations between Warsaw and Kyiv have been strained by disputes over history and farming. Officials fear Moscow may seek to exploit those tensions.

Nato has repeatedly warned that any attack on alliance territory would be treated as an attack on all members.

A source said a recent US-led naval exercise in Latvia was intended to send a clear message to Moscow that any attack on Nato’s eastern flank would also put Russian forces in direct confrontation with American troops.

In a worst-case scenario for the alliance, security sources fear Russia could try to undermine Polish sovereignty, test whether Nato is willing to fight for its eastern members, and force a weakening of Western support for Ukraine — all while trying to stay below the threshold of open war.

Polish defence officials said Warsaw had already carried out military exercises designed to warn Moscow that any attack would trigger a devastating Nato response.

Nato commanders have also made clear that Russian territory, including Kaliningrad, could be targeted if Moscow launched an attack on the alliance.