Rachel Reeves' spring statement leaves her to fight another day - but better news could soon fall victim to global events
Just four months ago, we were starting Rachel Reeves' latest economic update with the leak of the entire thing from the Office for Budget Responsibility before she had even stood up.
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But today there were no surprises - rabbits, policies, leaks or otherwise.
As with any economic update from the government, the Chancellor uses her statement (usually before the actual numbers come out) to set their stall out first and put their shine on what's normally a very difficult set of circumstances.
If governing were easy, everyone would do it, right?
There were a few glimmers of good economic news to point to today.
Inflation's down - for now - and will hit the Bank of England's target for next year. More slowing of cost-of-living pressures - finally.
Debt will be down overall across the parliament, though it will be ticking up slightly for the next few years.
Borrowing is looking a little better too - down in the coming years and this year dropping by £6billion alone.
Reeves is having no such row about meeting her fiscal rules today as she's managed to increase her headroom for manoeuvre since November.
And that's despite having to cough up a few billion pounds more for a U-turn on farming taxes, extra support for pubs, and cash for the schools white paper and SEND shake-up.
That deserves credit.
Real household disposable income, according to the OBR, is up too.
Reeves says this is proof her plan is the right one.
But it's not all plain sailing.
The GDP figures - whether the economy is growing or not - is predicted to be down slightly over the next year or two.
Yes, it's still growing, but this is from a government that said growth was its number one mission, and it's having to row back on its forecasts.
As was largely expected, there's no new spending changes - so we're no clearer on how the government is going to increase spending even quicker, as it claims to want to do.
The watchdog says the government is still on track to miss its 1.5million housing target by the end of the parliament too, despite increasing builds by 30,000 since the November forecast.
Bad news for Labour MPs too - and we're always looking at how they will be reacting to these crucial numbers.
Real terms spending growth is going to slow to just 0.3% by the end of the Parliament. That'll be difficult for backbenchers to stomach, especially ones who say they want the government to be doing more 'Labour things' and pivoting to combat the Greens and the left.
Then there's the downright ugly news, which could all unravel things further for the government.
Welfare spending will continue to balloon upwards, reaching £407billion by the end of the parliament.
It's set to increase by £16billion a year thanks to more spending on benefits and pensions.
Just a reminder, the defence budget is £62billion a year. Ouch.
Unemployment too is predicted to peak this year at 5.3 per cent by the end of the year, meaning a whopping 1.9million people will be out of work.
What looks worse is that there are 400,000 more people out of work compared with when Labour first took office.
The OBR says this is because of "entrants into the labour force struggling to find work amid subdued hiring demand".
Many businesses blame the Labour government for increased National Insurance costs and the minimum wage hike dampening demand.
But in a way, this entire day feels in many ways completely irrelevant in the wider context of the Middle East and its impact.
Though headroom is healthy for now, huge chunks of it could be wiped out if energy prices continue to stay high.
The Resolution Foundation says it could see bills soaring by £500 by the summer - just at the point the Chancellor is heralding a cut to them.
These price swings will affect fuel at the pumps, duty receipts and the government's energy price cap too.
The forecasts were done using data from ten days to the end of January, meaning they are now long out of date already.
Rachel Reeves may be living to fight another day, politically, but come the next Budget, we could be looking at yet more fiscal headaches for her, and for the government
Natasha Clark is LBC's political editor.
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