Reform is not surging in Makerfied, Labour is just no longer the default choice for most voters

This is based on focus groups conducted by Opinium and LBC with voters who have previously supported Labour and are now considering or planning a switch to Reform.

What makes the dynamics of this by-election complicated is that there isn’t a single, uniform swing away from Labour. The shift is uneven, with different voters moving at different speeds.

For many of the voters we spoke to, supporting Labour was not something they interrogated much before. It was habitual, shaped by family and repetition. What comes through in these groups is that this is beginning to break down. Once voting Labour is no longer taken for granted, the way people approach politics changes with it.

Some participants linked that shift to changes in their own lives, particularly having children. Politics felt more immediate and personal. Decisions about the country no longer felt abstract but tied to their own circumstances. At that point, voting out of habit becomes harder to justify, and people begin to look more closely at whether things feel like they are working.

What they point to is not ideology, but experience. Difficulty getting a dentist appointment, pressure on the NHS, rising costs, feeling less safe, and changes in their local area. These everyday observations carry real weight. People are judging politics based on what they can see around them, and across the groups this often adds up to a broader sense that things are not improving as they should.

Where the differences emerge is in how far that dissatisfaction has gone. Some voters are still weighing things up. There is hesitation in how they talk. Labour has disappointed them, but they haven’t ruled them out. Concerns about public services, especially the NHS, still pull them back. For some of these voters, Andy Burnham helps keep Labour in the conversation, seen as more authentic, more capable and more connected to local concerns than Labour nationally.

Others sound too far gone for even Burnham to win back. Their tone is different. Labour drops out of the frame entirely, and their focus shifts to what comes next. Among these voters, Burnham does not change the picture. He is still seen as part of Labour, and they have simply moved on.

This is where Reform comes in. Their vote is not driven by deep enthusiasm. Its appeal is more conditional. The party feels more direct and more willing to speak about the issues these voters care about, particularly immigration and control. At the same time, that support is not always accompanied by a strong sense of trust.

Reform is also helped by how the contest is framed. Many participants saw this by-election as Labour against Reform. Once that takes hold, the choice narrows quickly. Voting becomes about who can realistically win.

That is what makes the result of this by-election so important. A Labour win suggests it can still persuade some of these voters back, despite all the problems they face. A strong Reform result points to something harder to reverse for the former Labour voters we spoke to, where Labour is no longer the default choice even in their heartlands.

Priya Minhas is Associate Director at Opinium.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

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