Reform would win most seats if election took place this year, new in-depth poll reveals

Support for Labour and the Conservatives would plunge to nearly the half the national vote in the next electoral contest, according to an in-depth poll which used a sample size of 11,500 people.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage's Reform UK would snatch up 271 seats, the most of any party.

Labour would win just 178 seats, less than half of its stocking 411-seat majority it secured last year.

The Conservatives would slip behind the Liberal Democrats, winning just 46 seats in YouGov's projection.

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The Lib Dems would win 81 seats, adding nine MPs to the House of Commons. Meanwhile, the SNP would return as the largest party in Scotland following its 2024 collapse.

The Greens and Plaid Cymru in Wales would gain three seats each to both hold seven parliamentary places.

A coalition government would be required in such a scenario as no single party would have a majority.

YouGov's Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll marks the first its kind since the general election last summer.

Analysts based results on thousands of people, linking voters and characteristics to help with their estimation.

This is a more in-depth form of polling than the standard method where respondents are simply asked who they would vote for.

YouGov said: "Reform's meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country - including in Scotland."

It added: "According to our data and methods, 26% of voters would opt for Reform UK, 23% for Labour, 18% for the Conservatives, 15% the Liberal Democrats, 11% the Greens, 3% the SNP, 1% Plaid, and 2% for other parties and independent candidates.

"That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade."

This comes after Reform won a flurry of seats in the local elections last month, leading Farage to claim Reform UK ate “the Labour Party for lunch” and “wiped out” the Conservatives in parts of England.

While the local elections saw a widespread collapse in support for the Conservatives, voters also threw their support behind a range of different parties.

It did lead to substantial gains for Reform in most parts of England, but also success for the Liberal Democrats.

Back in January, an LBC poll revealed that one in four people who backed Labour last summer regretted their decision.

The feelings of regret reported were the highest amongst older voters - with a third of baby boomers saying they regret the decision.

Young voters were the least regretful of their choice, with 65 per cent of Gen Z not regretting their vote.

The Tories didn't seem to have capitalised on Labour voters' regrets, the polling showed.

Asking regretful Labour voters where they would go and vote for instead, 28 per cent said Reform UK, and 20 per cent said the Liberal Democrats.

Just 17 per cent said they would be drawn back to vote for the Conservatives, and 10 per cent said they'd now opt for the Greens.