Russia laying groundwork for intervention in Nato territory as false flag risks rise, experts warn
Russia is increasingly laying the legal and informational groundwork for potential military intervention beyond its borders, with Latvia emerging as a key flashpoint, an expert has warned.
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Writing exclusively for LBC Opinion, Thomas Nurcombe, Research Manager at the Coalition for Global Prosperity, said the risk of so-called “false flag” scenarios in the Baltic state is growing as Moscow ramps up disinformation and prepares new justifications for action abroad.
His warning comes as Russia’s parliament moves to grant fresh powers to President Vladimir Putin to deploy troops overseas in cases involving the “arrest, detention or criminal prosecution” of Russian citizens and compatriots.
While the Kremlin has not historically required parliamentary approval to send forces into neighbouring states, Nurcombe said the move signals a continued willingness to manufacture pretexts for intervention.
He argues that Moscow’s long-standing narrative of “protecting compatriots” is not a defensive policy, but a strategic tool used to justify expansion.
“The purported protection of so-called compatriots has never been an altruistic mission for the Kremlin,” he writes. “Instead, it is a mechanism to expand Russia’s boundaries.”
Nurcombe traces the roots of this approach back centuries, arguing that the idea of a unified “Russian World” has consistently been used to legitimise territorial expansion, a pattern that continues under Putin’s leadership.
He warns that this same playbook was used to justify Russia’s actions in Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022, where disinformation campaigns portrayed Russian-speaking populations as under threat.
According to Nurcombe, similar narratives are now being deployed across the Baltic states, including Latvia, with the aim of undermining social cohesion and eroding trust in government institutions.
“By heightening ethnic tensions through disinformation, Russia seeks to fabricate conditions that could later be used to justify military action against NATO member states,” he writes.
Latvia is seen as particularly vulnerable due to its demographics. Around a quarter of the population is ethnically Russian, while roughly a third speak Russian as their first language. In the eastern city of Daugavpils, close to the borders with Russia and Belarus, ethnic Russians make up nearly half the population.
Nurcombe explains these divisions are being exploited through targeted media influence.
Despite restrictions on Russian state media introduced in recent years, Kremlin-backed content continues to reach audiences via VPNs, mirrored websites and messaging platforms such as Telegram.
Estimates from the Atlantic Council suggest around 20 per cent of Russian-speaking viewers in Latvia still access banned Russian television channels.
He also claimed Russian intelligence services are using these channels to spread narratives alleging discrimination against Russian speakers, including claims of “Russophobia”, forced deportations and attempts to provoke conflict with Moscow.
The impact of these campaigns is already being felt, Nurcombe warns. Latvia’s State Security Service reported in 2024 that nearly a quarter of aggressive social media comments were aimed at inciting ethnic or social hatred, while more than a quarter included threats against state officials.
He also points to the Covid-19 pandemic as evidence of the real-world consequences of disinformation. Conspiracy theories about Western vaccines circulated widely among Russian-speaking communities, contributing to significantly lower uptake and disproportionate hospitalisation rates.
While Latvia and its Baltic neighbours have taken steps to build resilience against hostile information campaigns, Nurcombe warns that vulnerabilities remain and are likely to be exploited.
He warned that Russia’s latest legislative moves should not be viewed in isolation, but as part of a broader and long-standing strategy.
“Failing to recognise that Russian disinformation efforts go beyond Ukraine and into NATO territory risks the potential for future illegal landgrabs,” he writes.
Such actions, he warns, could be framed as “liberation” operations, echoing the tactics used in Ukraine, and risk triggering a wider European conflict.
“In such an eventuality,” Nurcombe adds, “Europe could once again face the prospect of full-scale war.”