West won’t take Russian threat seriously until ‘mass casualty event on NATO soil’, ex-Estonian president warns
Former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves has warned that Europe won’t take the threat from Russia seriously until a ‘mass casualty event’ takes place on NATO soil.
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Estonia’s foreign ministry said three Russian jets entered its airspace without permission on Friday and remained there for 12 minutes, the third violation of NATO airspace in a little more than a week.
The aircraft were intercepted by NATO jets, a spokesperson for the alliance confirmed, while Estonia summoned Russia’s senior diplomat in Tallinn over the incident.
Mr Ilves, who was the president of Estonia from 2006 until 2016, told LBC that the Russia’s western neighbours won’t take the threat posed by the nation seriously until a ‘genuine tragedy’ takes place.
"We can see that NATO is extremely reticent to undertake any kind of action," he told LBC's James Hanson.
"To be cynical about it, I think we need a mass casualty event before the member states are forced to actually take this seriously.
"I mean, we've had some near misses with bombs placed on planes that all so far have fortunately been found before they went off. We do have cases of major arson that we know the Russians did.
"But I think that it will take a genuine tragedy before NATO will get itself in order on these issues, precisely because of this incredible reticence to undertake anything"
It comes as Air force fighter jets from Germany and Sweden have been scrambled to intercept and track a Russian surveillance plane that was flying unidentified over the Baltic Sea, military officials said.
Two Swedish Gripen jets and two German Eurofighter jets deployed in international airspace to monitor and photograph the Russian IL-20 reconnaissance aircraft.
It had been flying without providing a flight path or radio contact that could signal its presence, Swedish and German air force officials said.
The monitoring, which ended without incident, came as NATO and European Union member countries have been on heightened alert for Russian military and reconnaissance activities in and around their airspace.
NATO member states responded by intercepting the Russian jets, and Estonia requested an urgent consultation with members by triggering NATO's article 4.
Article 4, the shortest of the NATO treaty’s 14 articles, reads: “The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.”
Estonia is expected to ask for a larger NATO military presence within its borders, which Poland did after Russian jets entered its airspace last week.
After intercepting the jets, a spokesperson for the alliance said: “This is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO's ability to respond.”
Mr Ilves said his country is 'expecting a stronger response' and that "nothing really was done" to stave off further Russian aggression.
"Certainly you can force (Russian fighter jets) to land, escort them to an air base and then investigate further. I mean, these are gradations of what to do, but at this point, nothing really was done," he said.
"We are expecting a stronger response. And we will be bringing this up at NATO tomorrow. We see this constant escalation and we see statements of concern. We do think that more is required at this point, given that we have had our own third incursion. It's very difficult for the Russians to deny something that is tracked on radar by just about everybody in the region, but that's what we have gotten used to".
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said the UK “stands with our Estonian allies, following yet another reckless incursion into NATO airspace by Russia.”
"We must continue to increase pressure on Putin, including driving forward the important new economic sanctions announced by the UK & EU in recent days,” she wrote in a post on X.
Mr Ilves also hit out at US president Donald Trump, saying: "We see rather robust rhetoric and no action, none on the part of Donald Trump, who periodically says 'I will make a decision in two weeks'.
"And there have been so many two-week periods now in which nothing has happened that I guess he holds off criticism by bluster, simply saying that 'well, now I'm really going to get harsh' but nothing ever happens.
"And in fact, what we've seen is that, that the deliveries of weapons to Ukraine have cut off".
Sven Sakkov, Estonia’s ambassador to the UK, previously told LBC News it is “likely that Russia will increase its blatant behaviour towards its western neighbours.”
“I think there's [much] speculation about why they do that,” he added. “One is for example that countries would feel more threatened and do not want to send more air defence assets to Ukraine to be used in its defence.
“I think we should prove otherwise, that we do not reduce our support for Ukraine, but at the same time we increase the defence of NATO's eastern flank.”
EU high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas described the incident as an "extremely dangerous provocation" which "further escalates tension in the region", and warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin was "testing the West’s resolve".
Ms Sakkov told LBC that Estonia will ask for an increased NATO presence within its country to stave off further violations, after the country requested an urgent meeting with the alliance by invoking Article 4.
"Poland also asked for Article 4 consultations (after Russia's drone incursion into its airspace) and as a result a number of allies moved a number of aircraft further east into Polish airfields, basically bolstering air defence of that country.
“And I suspect that we'll be moving somewhere in the same direction in Estonia and more widely in the Baltic states".
The Russian Ministry of Defence has denied that the jets entered Estonian airspace, stating that their flights were "conducted in strict compliance with international airspace regulations."
It said that the three jets were flying "from Karelia to an airfield in the Kaliningrad region."
In a statement shared on Telegram, the ministry said: "During the flight, the Russian aircraft did not deviate from the agreed-upon route and did not violate Estonian airspace. The aircraft's flight route lay over neutral waters of the Baltic Sea, more than three kilometres from Vaindlo Island."
The incursion came 10 days after Russian drones entered Polish airspace and six days after another Russian drone was intercepted flying over Romania.
The incident over Poland prompted Prime Minister Donald Tusk to warn that his country was the closest to "open conflict" it had been since the Second World War, while the UK announced it would provide Warsaw with extra air cover in the form of RAF jets.