Ukraine drives record Russian losses as troop deaths outpace recruitment, exposing a growing manpower crisis and forcing Moscow into a slower, defensive war
Russia cannot replace its dead as record losses, falling recruitment and coercion tactics expose widening cracks in its war effort
Russia is now losing more troops than it can recruit, a shift that could begin to erode its ability to sustain offensive operations, a senior Ukrainian security official has warned.
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Speaking exclusively to LBC, Olesia Horiainova, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre, said Russian forces are suffering record losses while struggling to replenish their ranks, marking a significant turning point in the war.
“In March 2026, Russian losses reached a record 35,000 personnel in a single month,” she said, adding that Ukrainian drone operations were responsible for a substantial proportion of those casualties. “For the first time since 2022, the enemy is losing more personnel than it is able to mobilise.”
Despite the overall size of Russia’s deployed force continuing to grow, Horiainova said this is being sustained by drawing on strategic reserves rather than successful recruitment.
The cost of territorial gains is also rising sharply. Ukrainian estimates suggest Russian forces lost around 120 personnel per square kilometre of captured territory in 2025, rising to as many as 316 killed and wounded per square kilometre in 2026 as drones increasingly dominate the battlefield.
On some frontlines, the situation is even worse, with reports indicating a ratio of up to three Russian soldiers killed for every one wounded.
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Horiainova also pointed to mounting evidence of deteriorating conditions for Russian troops, with reports that wounded soldiers are being sent back into combat and that surrender is being actively discouraged by commanders. In some cases, she said, personnel are dying from injuries without receiving medical treatment.
“These practices are becoming known within Russia and are reducing willingness to sign military contracts,” she said.
The Kremlin had reportedly aimed to recruit between 1,100 and 1,150 personnel per day in 2026, but current figures suggest that has fallen to around 940 per day, a shortfall that could become critical if it continues.
“If recruitment drops to around 25,000 personnel per month, Russia will no longer be able to sustain its numerical advantage on the battlefield,” Horiainova warned.
At the same time, recruitment methods are shifting. She said around 40% of new personnel are now drawn from what she described as “vulnerable population groups”, including prisoners and those in significant debt, often incentivised through amnesties or financial relief.
There are also increasing reports of pressure being applied across Russian society. Universities have reportedly been instructed to ensure a proportion of students sign military contracts, while some regional authorities have ordered businesses to nominate employees for service.
“This amounts to a continuous covert mobilisation,” Horiainova said, noting the Kremlin’s reluctance to announce a formal nationwide draft.
The strain is not only on manpower. Russia is also facing growing financial pressure, with a combined regional budget deficit of around $9 billion. Some regions have already reduced enlistment payments and compensation to the families of fallen soldiers, even as others increase bonuses in an attempt to attract recruits.
Even so, she cautioned that Russia retains significant resources to continue the war, supported in part by strong energy revenues driven by global instability.
“Russia is not bankrupt,” she said. “It still has sufficient financial capacity to sustain both voluntary and coercive recruitment.”
However, the overall cost of the war is rising. Increasing casualty rates are driving up compensation payments, while those willing to enlist are demanding higher wages. Around 27,000 foreign recruits are also believed to be serving in Russian forces, further adding to the financial burden.
Taken together, these pressures could begin to change the nature of the conflict.
“If current trends continue, Russia may be forced to reduce the intensity of its assault operations and shift towards positional defence on certain sections of the front,” Horiainova said.
Such a shift would mark a move away from the grinding, attritional tactics that have defined much of the war, potentially slowing the pace of Russian advances and limiting its ability to maintain constant pressure along the frontline.
While she stressed that this alone would not end the conflict, she said it could weaken Russia’s capacity to escalate and undermine domestic morale, particularly if the Kremlin struggles to demonstrate tangible progress.
For Ukraine, she said, the situation is becoming “more favourable” as its strategy of active defence, combined with the growing effectiveness of drone warfare, continues to impose heavy costs on Russian forces.