Russia will be able to continue its Ukraine war effort for the rest of 2026 if no peace deal is struck
Ukraine, Russia and the US last week engaged in the first three-way peace talks aimed at ending the war, as the fourth year of Moscow’s full-scale invasion nears
Russia’s war effort in Ukraine is sustainable enough to see it through to the end of the year should a peace deal not be struck before then, the UK believes.
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Ukraine, Russia and the US last week engaged in the first three-way peace talks aimed at ending the war, as the fourth year of Moscow’s full-scale invasion nears.
More talks are soon expected to follow the Abu Dhabi negotiations, as Russia continues strikes aimed at crippling Ukraine’s power plants.
But if a ceasefire is not brokered this year, then Russia’s war economy, its military recruitment campaigns and the support it gets from other countries are likely to ensure Moscow’s current footing in the conflict is sustained for the rest of 2026.
Russia is believed to have suffered 415,000 casualties in 2025, down from 430,000 the previous year.
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A total of 1,228,000 Russian soldiers are believed to have died since the start of its invasion in 2022.
Alongside its domestic recruitment campaign, Russia has been recruiting more foreign fighters to join its cause.
These are estimated to number in the thousands, but are a sign that the Kremlin is keen to avoid a wider national mobilisation.
Some 55,000 Russian kamikaze drones were launched into Ukraine in 2025, a five-fold increase on the previous year, and which were largely targeted at the country’s critical energy infrastructure.
Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday before the Prime Minister left for his trip to China.
During their conversation, Downing Street said the pair “discussed the desperate situations many families face, including no heating or electricity, during freezing winter temperatures” amid Russia’s ongoing air strikes.
A Downing Street spokesperson added: “The President welcomed the UK’s announcement of £20 million in support for energy infrastructure earlier this month, which will strengthen Ukraine’s energy security amid escalating and indiscriminate Russian attacks on its critical infrastructure.
“The leaders discussed the progress made during recent peace talks in Abu Dhabi and agreed on the need for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. The Prime Minister said that Ukraine has already shown its commitment to peace and that Russia must end the continued bloodshed.”
Ministers have refused to reveal how many British soldiers could be placed on the ground in Ukraine to help enforce a peace deal, should one be reached amid US President Donald Trump’s apparent insistence an agreement is brokered quickly.
The Government claims that revealing the number of troops in the so-called assurance force would only benefit Mr Putin.
The size of the force is likely to be governed by what form a peace deal eventually takes.