Russia will ramp up hybrid attacks within months as ‘cornered’ Putin seeks way out of Ukraine war, Al Carns tells LBC
Russia will step up hybrid attacks in the coming months as Vladimir Putin looks for a way out of the war in Ukraine, former defence minister Al Carns has warned.
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Speaking to LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr, the former Special Forces commander said Putin was “boxed into a corner” and could seek to provoke an international crisis to force other countries to the negotiating table. He warned that Russia did not need to move large numbers of troops to cause disruption, with drone incursions and cyber attacks among the options available to the Kremlin.
Mr Carns also revealed a review of government “war books” had been launched during his time in office to ensure departments knew how they would respond to a crisis, arguing that Britain’s readiness and resilience were central to its defence.
“I think you’re going to see over the next couple of months an increased ratchet of hybrid attacks and potentially something more escalatory,” he told LBC. “But you’re probably going to see a Russian narrative building towards that, and we’ll get the indicators and warnings.”
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His comments came after Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused Defence Secretary Wes Streeting of going “AWOL” amid concerns about Russian aggression, calling on him and Prime Minister Andy Burnham to explain what was happening and how the government intended to respond.
Mr Carns said Putin faced three options: escalate the fighting in Ukraine, seek a negotiated settlement or create a crisis elsewhere to increase pressure on the countries supporting Kyiv. Escalating inside Ukraine would require further mobilisation, he argued, risking anger among Russia’s elites.
The alternative was to “find an international crisis to escalate, to bring the international community to the table to try and get an off-ramp off Ukraine”, he said. That could include more drone incursions over countries including Finland, Sweden and the Baltic states, further cyber attacks or using the supposed protection of Russian-speaking populations as a pretext for action.
Mr Carns said Moscow would seek to ratchet up pressure without triggering NATO’s Article 5 collective defence response. He described the situation as “an exceptionally dangerous” moment.
Asked by LBC whether the warnings were largely Russian disinformation designed to frighten the public, Mr Carns said intelligence agencies would detect major Russian military movements. But the absence of a large build-up of troops did not mean there was no capacity to cause harm.
“The ability to sort of inflict pain and pressure doesn’t necessarily need big formations anymore,” he said.
The Labour MP suggested close attention should be paid to Russia’s elite drone units and where they were being deployed, warning that “wherever they go, trouble tends to follow”.
When it comes to the UK's preparations, Mr Carns said the review of departmental “war books” was intended to bring together plans for how the government would respond in a crisis. That included work across departments ranging from Health to the Home Office, ensuring each had considered what it would need to do.
“That war book each government department needs to deliver, and they all come together to deliver you a plan that you can then enact if there is a crisis,” he said.
When asked whether there would be a government plan if Russia damaged an undersea cable and Britain lost some of its internet access, Mr Carns said that was the kind of scenario the responsible department should examine, while arguing that any disruption to Britain’s financial markets could also affect the United States, a consequence he believed Moscow would want to avoid.
Earlier, Kemi Badenoch had accused ministers of failing to give the public a clear account of the threat, contrasting their response with that of European leaders.
“The defence secretary has gone AWOL,I mean where is he? Haven’t heard anything from him,” she told LBC. “We are in an era of hybrid warfare, something is going on, and I don’t think the government has a plan.”
Calling for more public reassurance, she said: “I would like to hear the government say something — if nothing is going on, then they should come out and reassure us, instead it looks like they’ve all gone on holiday.”
The Ministry of Defence referred to Streeting’s statement to the Commons on 10 September, when he told MPs: “The threats we face are not only evolving; they are getting closer to home. Every day, the UK and our allies encounter espionage, cyber-attacks and military posturing by hostile states.”
Streeting said Britain was not at war with Russia and did not seek confrontation, but warned: “Moscow should be in no doubt that we are ready to defend every inch of NATO, should Russia attack.”
Mr Carns warned next month’s Budget must put defence front and centre, with investment focused on preparing Britain “for the next war, not the last”. But he warned that a “huge amount of wastage” in procurement was undermining the value of defence spending, arguing that the government had to make every pound go further.