A new Cold War is already under way and Russia’s hackers are targeting Britain, things are about to go hot

Huddled over laptops across Russia’s vast territory, the cyber army has breached, hacked, and sabotaged our digital architecture. It is clear that as the guns boom over eastern Ukraine, a more silent, but equally significant war is being waged not in the trenches, but through modems and Wi-Fis across Europe.

One of the most significant hacker groups is “Sandworm”, taking their name from the hidden monster in the Dune universe. This group works with other colorfully named hacker groups like “Venomous Bear” to give Russia significant hybrid warfare options. Russia fears NATO responses to an all-out physical attack, and instead uses cyber attacks to stay deviously just shy of outright attack.

Russian hackers damaged Ukraine’s air raid warning app, a callous attempt to maximise civilian loss of life. As winter temperatures in Kyiv hit minus 20 centigrade, Russia has used hackers to disable Ukraine’s energy grid. The Kremlin has decided if it cannot fight the Ukrainians to surrender, it will use hackers to freeze them into surrender instead. Russian hackers laugh in warm rooms as Ukrainian grandmothers shiver in apartments with no heating.

But the UK has not been spared. Just seven attacks against the UK in the whole of 2022 surged to 27 attacks in January 2023 alone. Our transport and public administration sectors are particularly targeted. Furthermore, an announcement the UK was supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles triggered a nine-fold increase in attacks in a single month. Even a speech by a British government spokesman describing Russia as a rival provoked attacks to jump nearly fivefold in the month after. The UK is clearly in the cyber army’s bullseye.

NATO has a serious problem. Our collective defence belongs to the 20th century understanding of war. The alliance was set up to deter armed invasions. Nobody in 1945 could have understood a world where teenagers in hoodies could bring down energy grids or radars. Russia happily pokes and provokes our countries in relentless cyber attacks. Russia is confident these attacks will not incur a serious response from NATO. Russian must be disabused of this notion if the attacks are to cease.

The findings of the Henry Jackson Society report “Catching Sandworm” make several things clear. Britain is a top-tier target for the Kremlin’s hackers. Furthermore, these attacks are likely to continue, as a frustrated Russia lashes out in cyberspace to offset its frustrations on the battlefield. Russia has also shown an increasingly reckless aggression in terms of cyber attacks. Emma Logan told the OSCE that “This threat has not changed significantly since the start of its invasion, but Russia’s risk appetite has grown significantly”. Even the NHS has not been spared.

As Russia’s risk appetite increases, so to must our appetite for cyber defence. But it will take more than a password change to counter the Kremlin’s aggression.

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Michael McManus is Director of Research at The Henry Jackson Society.

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