Has the Scottish election just caught fire thanks to Wes Streeting?
Twenty five days to go and where are we at in this election campaign? Well, that question last week would have been answered by a shrug of the shoulders and a “meh”, such was the lacklustre feel of the whole affair.
Listen to this article
But two things have happened which could finally set this campaign alight and make the electorate sit up and take notice.
First was the MRP analysis of polls which predicted an outright majority for the SNP - and that Labour would not only fail to win any constituency seats but would have its worse result since the advent of devolution.
The work by YouGov used thousands of simulations based on its own data and modelling found the SNP won an outright majority 89 per cent of the time.
It put John Swinney’s party on 67 MSPs - anything 65 and above would see him claim a mandate for a second referendum, using he says, the precedent that was set out in 2011 when the SNP “broke” the proportional representation voting system to win a majority, and which saw the then Tory government accept a referendum on independence should be held.
So far in this campaign, while that is clearly the SNP’s policy, it has not been front and centre of its campaign. Indeed the SNP has been taking a don’t scare the horses approach given its lead in the polls. When it has felt the need to talk constitutional matters it has rather focused on Labour's problems at Westminster, of getting rid of Keir Starmer, or demanding energy policy is wholly devolved, than beat the drum loudly for indyref2.
The poll will have changed thinking on all of that. And while the party has been concerned about voter apathy, or complacency, the idea that this could be in reach will, they hope, encourage pro-independence supporters to turn out.
And so to the second happening. Wes Streeting’s answer to Lewis Goodall on LBC on Sunday morning about just what would be good enough to constitute a mandate for a second independence referendum was “we’re not giving them one”.
For him, the 37 Labour MPs elected in Scotland in the General Election - on a manifesto of no to indref2, is the only mandate that counts. It is also worth remembering that in that election the SNP very much had independence as its core message, and it ended up with just nine MPs.
But Streeting’s remarks are to an independence supporter as a red rag to a bull. If they hadn’t felt like turning out on May 7 to vote SNP before, chances are they will now.
And his comments will have been a moment of despair for Scottish Labour strategists. They will likely agree with the sentiment, but they have been keen to make this race to Holyrood about the SNP’s domestic record rather than constitutional matters. That has now been blown out the water - and done on the day before Anas Sarwar stands up to reveal his party’s manifesto.
No matter what might be contained within that, it will be over-shadowed by this new row over the constitution.
Now those who voted No in 2014 and who staunchly remain of the same mind, will say this is just the SNP doing what the SNP does best, create a grievance. That the vote was had, and the result remains. That they know fine well the constitution is reserved, and there is no mechanism by which they can force a referendum. They will also likely agree with Streeting that the volatility experienced in the UK since then, is reason not to open that can of worms again.
Meanwhile those who voted Yes in 2014 will jump up and down about Streeting and Labour “denying democracy” by this emphatic spelling out of the party’s position. They will say it’s not up to Keir Starmer but the Scottish voters.
The problem they face is that is entirely up to Starmer and his government - the Supreme Court was very clear that Holyrood has no locus on the reserved matter of the constitution, that a second referendum has to be a political not a legal decision. They will now be desperate for John Swinney to reveal his “secret plan” which he allegedly has to get round such an obstacle.
If it all feels slightly like Groundhog Day in Scottish politics, that’s because these arguments are well rehearsed. We’ve been having them since 2014. But while some may well want to move past them, to focus on just what can be delivered at Holyrood rather than ifs, buts and maybes of where power and decisions lie when it comes to the constitutional future of Scotland, the fundamental question of just how Scots could have a second vote on independence should they want one - and how that demand is measured - is still unanswered.
Until a Westminster government grasps that nettle this debate will never end.