The starting gun has been fired in what could be the most brutal and bitter Holyrood election ever seen

Scots go to the polls on May 7 to elect the seventh tranche of members of the Scottish Parliament, but the positivity that came with devolution and the creation of Holyrood is long distant.

Scotland is a country divided. In many ways it always has been when it comes to left and right politics. But then came the 2014 independence referendum which proved Scots were also worlds apart from each other on the constitutional question, and polls show that folk have barely moved in their views on that subject.

Ironically the SNP is the party which most benefited from its failure to win that vote and secure independence. It went from strength to strength, and though support has more recently declined, it can still rely on a floor of around 30 per cent of voters who will support it through thick and thin.

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John Swinney’s aim of getting an outright SNP majority though, at the moment feels like wishful thinking, but with the Scottish Greens in the mix, a pro-independence majority in Holyrood already seems baked in.

And that is despite the fact the majority of votes overall could well be cast for pro-UK parties. But those voters who fall into that category have, at this election, four parties from which to choose thanks to the arrival of Reform. So you can be of the right and of the left and vote for parties which support remaining in the UK (though the Tories would suggest that because some of Reform’s candidates are pro-independence that proves it’s a nationalist wolf in Union flag clothing).

But not one of those parties is approaching anywhere near that 30% of support the SNP seems to automatically command. The opposition benches seem to beckon.

Then we have newer societal divides which will likely come into play – around energy (oil and gas or renewables) around sex and gender and women’s rights to single sex spaces and the interplay with the rights of transgender people, and of course around immigration.

For a long time immigration was a problem for Scotland in the sense that the country needed more of it given population decline. Now with housing emergencies across councils, waiting lists for GPs and hospital appointments, schools struggling, immigration is being seen by some in a very different light.

This is the issue that Reform hopes to capitalise on. Yes its leader Malcolm Offord would rather talk about tax and the economy, but it is immigration which drives much of its support.

We have already seen protests outside hotels where asylum seekers are housed, and the party’s leader in Scotland claims to have been out on patrol in Glasgow’s city centre late at night with people concerned about women’s safety because of the number of “strangers from foreign lands” hanging around. He says he’s had his position hardened on the subject since he defected from the Tories.

Reform also showed it was happy to go on the attack over ethnicity and religion at the Hamilton by-election, using clips from a speech given by Scottish Labour’s leader Anas Sarwar which they claimed proved he was only interested in furthering the interests of the Pakistani community. It was widely condemned – but there’s a reason Sarwar now feels he has to consistently talk of “my country Scotland” and stand in front of a saltire backdrop at his speeches – and it’s not to win over Scottish nationalists.

The battle for second place, the polls suggest, is between Reform and Labour. The latter will hope that the apparent implosion of Reform’s campaign thanks to the resurfacing of an old homophobic joke said by the party’s leader Malcolm Offord, and the fact that five of its candidates quit a week after being unveiled, is just the start.

But Sarwar has his own problems. He still believes there’s a way to actually win, pinning his hopes on the “don’t knows” in opinion polls whom he believes may be prepared to give his party a chance when they realise an election is coming and forced to choose. But he has a mountain to climb. Support has been on the slide since Labour’s General Election win at Westminster and the mistakes Sarwar himself says have been made. His decision to call for the Prime Minister Keir Starmer to go was a wild gamble which has not shifted the polls in his favour.

Scottish Labour is pinning its hopes on the disaffection with the SNP and its record on the domestic agenda, especially the NHS. But the SNP is in confident mood. At its campaign launch John Swinney even stood in front of a podium emblazoned with the word “hope”. Quite a pitch from a party which has been in government since 2007.

The SNP approach to this campaign is similar to that of Starmer’s in 2024; the “ming vase” idea, where just by being careful and cautious they can get over the line – they hope the majority one. That means, keeping the independence supporters on board by saying that is the answer to all of Scotland’s ills – but also trying to woo 2024 Labour voters with a new array of retail offers like shared equity schemes for first time buyers and more child care options.

Interestingly, the party is simultaneously trying to pitch John Swinney as a leader of stability and reliability in a world of chaos but also the man who would deliver the end of the UK and all the instability which would come with that. But then it’s no stranger to looking both ways at once; it’s been the party of government for two decades but still sees itself as the opposition.

Swinney has also made his view of Reform very clear. He believes the party’s rise is due in large part to racism. There is no triangulating from him there. But despite Sarwar’s clear antipathy towards Reform too, John Swinney is keen to link the parties, claiming a “grubby deal” would be done by them to potentially keep the SNP out of power post-election. Sarwar has ruled out any such deal, and says Swinney should be “ashamed” for suggesting such.

But the proportional representation of the voting system in Scotland could potentially mean that should he have a shot at being First Minister, it could be the votes of Reform MSPs that would get him there – if he could also convince the LibDems and Tories. At that point Reform may have to decide which is worse – another five years of SNP government, or Scotland’s second ethnic minority FM in Bute House.

The Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish Greens have all also launched their campaigns this week. Like Labour, the Tories believe they can show the opinion polls are wrong – leader Russell Findlay points to the 2021 election as proof. The party was expected to come third, but it stayed in second place. That of course was before Reform appeared, which has not only taken some of his councillors but also many potential voters.

He believes Reform would be happy with the SNP back in charge – his pitch to voters is to prevent that from happening by voting for him.

The LibDems believe they are going under the radar and could see the number of their MSPs rise by some margin – they only had four after 2021 but say there are constituencies in the north for the taking. Similarly, the Scottish Greens think they could pick up their first ever constituency MSPs, one in Glasgow and one in Edinburgh, as well as doing well on the regional list.

There are 40 days and nights to go. Jesus wandered the desert for that time, Noah built an ark before the rain fell for the same. All parties are praying – some for miracles, others for no derailments. Voters just want to get a GP when they need one, for fuel and food costs to come down, for housing to be affordable. It’s not a lot to hope for.