Scottish politics faces its most dramatic year in decades - here's what to watch, writes Gina Davidson

Everything in Scottish political life at the moment revolves around 7 May. It has done for the last 12 months - and it will only get more intense in the months ahead. And that’s because for the first time in a decade or so, there is a real battle ahead and the political landscape in Scotland could change entirely.

Of course, it’s a fool’s game to predict election outcomes this far from a vote being cast, but there is a three-way fight for the hearts and minds - and the crosses in the ballot box - of the Scottish electorate dead ahead.

Right now, opinion polls suggest the SNP will remain the biggest party, even after 19 years in government. Numbers vary but winning an outright majority seems just out of reach - at the moment. That, of course, is the magic threshold John Swinney says must be crossed if the party is to demand a second independence referendum. But if their numbers were to slide between now and May, and tides can easily change in election campaigns, then just who will be First Minister becomes a less settled question.

SNP sources say they are not complacent about the election ahead - and they have both Labour and Reform UK, if not quite breathing down their neck at the moment, most definitely waiting in the wings.

This election was supposed to be Scottish Labour’s big moment. The General Election victory of Keir Starmer had a sound footing in Scotland, returning 37 MPs after years of the party being in the wilderness.

But since then, the party has slipped in the polls as decisions made by the PM and his Chancellor have slowly but surely undermined Anas Sarwar’s chances. Starmer’s lack of popularity in Scotland even raises questions about his appearance in the campaign ahead - and Sarwar himself bangs the drum that it is he, and not the PM, who is up for election.

Labour also points to its victory in the Hamilton by-election as proof that it can buck the polling trends, and, without a doubt, it has more money and a sharper election campaign game and methodology than the SNP - currently. But there is a huge gulf between it and the SNP to make up and a good ground game in one election is not so easily translated to a national campaign.

And both Labour and the SNP have another contender to deal with - one which could reshape the Scottish Parliament.

Reform UK is not just an English phenomenon, and in the last 12 months has gone from near zero to neck-and-neck with Scottish Labour in the polls - some even suggesting it could be the second-largest party in Holyrood come May.

With the majority of their candidates never having been elected before, never mind being steeped in the workings of Holyrood, their arrival will certainly shake up the so-called “cosy consensus” some believe exists in the parliament.

For some time, John Swinney has painted Nigel Farage as the bogeyman of Scottish politics and has said that the battle ahead is between their parties. He hopes those horrified at the prospect of Reform will therefore stick with the SNP, and not chance a vote elsewhere.

But that strategy did not work in Hamilton, and more recently he has pointed to the choice in May as being between the SNP and Labour, in the hope that dissatisfaction with Starmer will ensure people don’t take a chance on Sarwar. As the election gets closer he may well have to choose one or the other - a dual message is a hard pitch to voters.

If he plumps for a face-off with Labour, then Sarwar will be delighted. He believes the SNP’s domestic record over nearly two decades is where the fight should be, and that they can be defeated as a result. Expect to hear even more about NHS waiting lists, Scotland’s drug death toll, the failure to get two ferries up and running on time and in budget, and the future of Scotland’s education system, particularly the university and college sector.

And yet, the polls do not show a surge to Labour. The surge has instead been to Reform, while the SNP support has stabilised, since its freefall in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s departure. But Reform’s rise in the polls is untested at the ballot box - aside from one council by-election. It has no track record, and at the moment, no Scottish leader, though the recent defection by Lord Malcolm Offord from the Tories seems likely to have provided one. With him, we can also begin to expect some Scottish policies.

But Offord is no Farage, and when it comes to fronting an election campaign and appearing on the TV debates, it could well be the case that support begins to drop when people realise they are not going to see Farage v Swinney either on telly or in the Holyrood chamber.

Immigration - a key Reform focus - is also not a Holyrood issue, so while it appears to have crept up the list of concerns in Scotland, an awareness that MSPs can do little to affect it may see support decline. And with most of Reform’s defections in Scotland coming from the Tories, the other parties will be quick to underline that, suggesting they are no more than unreconstructed Scottish Conservatives.

Speaking of which, that party doesn’t have its troubles to seek going into the election campaign. Its support has crashed, making its chances of retaining second place in Parliament vanishingly unlikely. They are also clearly aware that the regional list seats where they gain most of their MSPs are now even more competitive with the arrival of Reform, as that’s where they are likely to pick up their wins.

They still believe, though, that in some areas, such as the north east and south of Scotland, where it’s more likely a battle between them and the SNP, they can cling on, given the SNP’s focus on independence.

Support for the Scottish Greens, again going by the polls, appears to be growing - though the party has already begun to lose some of its more vocal members to Your Party, Despite that, they could well be the kingmakers once again - going into another arrangement with the SNP to ensure a pro-indepence majority (if their members agree), or at least propping up a minority government.

Coalitions and deals will definitely shape the next Parliament. There have been suggestions in some quarters that the SNP and Labour should do some kind of deal - as they might well do in Wales - to shut Reform out of power. It seems far less likely in Scotland, with the SNP able to look to the Greens and, perhaps, even the Scottish Liberal Democrats on a case-by-case basis if it chooses to remain as a minority government.

It is highly unlikely any party will look to Reform to do deals - and similarly unlikely they will want to be tied into agreements if they feel they can make trouble for the government in other ways. Their strategy in Holyrood will be fascinating to watch.

And let’s not forget how many MSPs are quitting this time round - the total currently stands at 40, the majority being SNP backbenchers. Those looking to fill their shoes include some who lost their seats at the General Election, so no matter what, the SNP group will be fundamentally changed, potentially bringing new headaches for John Swinney.

But before any of that, we have a Scottish budget to get through in January. Expect a few retail rabbits out the hat from John Swinney ahead of the election - ones which Anas Sarwar will undoubtedly claim are a result of extra funding for the Scottish Government from Labour at a UK level. Keep an eye out for any small cuts to taxation, which will also be an attempt to take some wind from Reform’s sails.

If you feel you’ve heard all that budget political knockabout before, it’s because you have. And there will be some old tunes played in the election campaign ahead too. The only new voices will be from Reform. Just how many of them will ultimately be heard in Holyrood will be up to the notoriously thrawn Scottish electorate. Without doubt, it will be very interesting indeed.

____________________

Gina Davidson is LBC's Scotland Political Editor

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email opinion@lbc.co.uk