SNP slammed for ‘betrayal’ over oil and gas which could cost party in crucial Aberdeen by-election

Fergus Mutch said voters in the north-east had grown increasingly frustrated by “mixed messages” from the party over the future of an industry which supports thousands of jobs.

He said the "ridiculous" shift on energy policy under Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership had undermined people’s faith in the party, and that John Swinney was continuing to equivocate on the issue.

The by-election is at the heart of a three way battle with the Conservatives hoping to wrest the seat from the SNP and Reform UK also targeting disillusioned voters. The election was triggered after the sitting MP, Stephen Flynn, stood down after being elected to the Scottish Parliament last month.

Fergus Mutch, now a partner at True North Advisors and formerly the SNP's head of communications and research and a former candidate for the party in the north east, said the state of the energy sector was the dominating factor in the by-election.

He told LBC: “Let's not beat around the bush. The state of Aberdeen, as a result of the fortunes of the energy sector, some of them by dint of global circumstances, but a lot of them government-made over recent years, is a hot topic in this constituency.

“The people in Aberdeen South do not necessarily see that they have a government on their side with the current UK government, which has expanded and extended the Energy Profits Levy, is talking about making it formal that no new exploration licences will be granted in the North Sea, and is bringing forward the end for that industry in which thousands of people make their livelihoods.

“Meanwhile, the Scottish Government, which was traditionally a great champion of the oil and gas sector in Aberdeen, seems to have wobbled, seems to be putting climate ambition ahead of people's jobs.

"I think people rightly in Aberdeen see that as a bit of a betrayal."

Mr Mutch said no party was hitting the twin arguments of retaining oil and gas and investing in renewables. “No party, it seems, is going after what I think is a really ripe constituency here.

"The winning argument is we want to do as much renewables and accelerate the transition as quickly as possible to max out on the energy we need and the jobs that go with it, whilst also continuing to use as much of the oil and gas that is available to us in the North Sea as possible.

“No party is saying that. Reform is saying no renewables, more oil and gas. The Conservatives are aping them in that respect. The SNP has moved ever so slightly away from the ridiculous position that Nicola Sturgeon wrongly, in my view, got the party into, which was a presumption against new oil and gas

“But the Labour Party is also not seen as a friend of the industry right now. That's a real problem for them in terms of how they're perceived in the city.

"There could be a party that could sweep up here by just saying, we want oil and gas, we want renewables, we want as much as possible, and we want to create and sustain the jobs that go with both sides of this energy mix.”

Put to him that the SNP would claim that is its current stance, he said the SNP had shifted position on tax - calling for the removal of the Energy Profits Levy - but the party needed to go further.

"When it comes to the North Sea's future, so that's new exploration licenses, and the regulatory process, projects like Rosebank, Jackdaw, and what comes next behind them in the queue, the SNP leans on woolly words around climate compatibility.

“Whereas I think it's a really easy position for John Swinney to take that just says, for as long as we need oil and gas, we should produce as much of it from our own waters through projects like this. That's the easy answer for him.

“The SNP has moved a little bit on taxation, but it does not have that clarity of message when it comes to what the North Sea's future looks like.”

He added: “I think people are critical of John Swinney's equivocation. He comes up, campaigns in the by-election and gets asked the question, do you think Rosebank and Jackdaw should go ahead? And he says it's not a decision for me.

“What kind of nationalist leader keeps out of reserved matters? One that doesn't have the confidence in his arguments, frankly.

“But also, when workers hear that coming from John Swinney, talking about climate compatibility rather than what is the economic reality, what is the energy security reality, and how are you going to sustain my job in the future, what they want to hear is we need new projects in the North Sea that are going to sustain this industry in our waters, in this city for many years to come.

“They're not getting that clarity of message from John Swinney. I fear he may well pay the price for that in the by-election this Thursday.”

He also suggested that uncertainty over the party's position could push some voters towards the Conservatives, who have sought to make support for oil and gas the central theme of their campaign.

The party’s UK leader Kemi Badenoch has been on the campaign trail in Aberdeen South three times in the last few weeks, and has said a win for her party would give the oil and gas industry “the kiss of life”.

Mr Mutch said: "The Conservatives have moved to a position that has a lot more clarity around it. But let's not forget the Tories were the ones who brought in the Energy Profits Levy in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine a few years ago.

"However, they've moved position and they want new projects, they want to see the North East moving, they want to see more oil and gas coming from domestic sources.”

Responding to Mr Mutch, a spokesperson for the SNP said: "The SNP is the only party that are unequivocal in that it is not renewables or oil and gas – it is both.

"You cannot secure the renewables jobs of the future without protecting the world class offshore jobs and supply chains we have today - that is the SNP position.

“The by-election is about more than that though - it is about who controls those energy resources. We are absolutely clear that Scotland should and those revenues should serve the Scottish people and support Scottish jobs.”

The party is under pressure to retain the seat, which was once held by its former Westminster leader, as it only has seven MPs in the Commons at present as a result of Mr Flynn's switch to Holyrood, and a similar move by Stephen Gethins, who had represented the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency, where a by-election will also be held tomorrow.

The party was reduced to just nine MPs at the 2024 General Election which saw Labour win 37 Scottish constituencies in a major turnaround in the party's fortunes.

While the Abroath seat is expected to remain SNP, the Aberdeen constituency is far more marginal. Although the SNP won both Aberdeen Central and Aberdeen Deeside constituencies at May's Holyrood election, the Conservatives ran them close while Reform UK also made significant gains on the regional list vote share.

Mr Mutch said the SNP could also not rely on the anti-independence vote being split between the Conservatives and Reform. "If I was them, I wouldn't be betting on it," he said.

And he said if Labour was "serious" about recovering support in Aberdeen it needed a more "pragmatic policy around energy."

"There's a lot harder thinking required than just saying, you know, GB Energy will be headquartered there. It needs to be tens of billions of investment rather than, let's say, more modest projects that are going to take the edge off in the short term, but maybe not open up the huge economic growth opportunities in the years ahead."

List of candidates in Aberdeen South

SNP - Richard Thomson

Scottish Conservative - Douglas Lumsden

Scottish Labour - Nurul Hoque Ali

Reform UK - Jo Hart

Scottish Liberal Democrat - Mel Sullivan

Scottish Greens - Jorg Shelton-Eckstein

Alliance for Democracy and Freedom - David Ballantine