From the skies to Europe’s streets: Experts issue stark warning Iran is changing how wars are fought
The future of warfare in Europe is already being shaped by the conflict unfolding in Iran, with experts warning that the tactics, technology and strategies on display today will not stay confined to the Middle East.
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Writing exclusively for LBC Opinion, Jonas Malmgren, CEO of defence-focused investor FrontVentures and a former technical officer in the Swedish Armed Forces, said the war in Iran is acting as a “live testbed” for the next generation of conflict.
He points to the rapid evolution of low-cost drones as one of the clearest examples of how modern warfare is being transformed. The FLM-136, also known as the LUCAS drone, was used by the United States in strikes on Iran last month.
It is itself a reverse-engineered version of Iran’s Shahed-136, a weapon that has already reshaped the battlefield in Ukraine after being deployed at scale by Russian forces.
The result is a circular arms race where technology, tactics and even personnel are constantly being adapted and redeployed across different conflicts.
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Malmgren notes that Ukraine, having faced thousands of incoming drones, has become a global leader in air defence against them. Ukrainian units have reportedly shot down around 44,000 Shahed drones during the war, and that expertise is now being exported, with interceptor teams deployed to the Middle East to counter similar threats.
“This shows beyond doubt that what happens in one conflict will inevitably inform the next,” he writes.
The implications for Europe are significant. According to Malmgren, the defining feature of modern warfare is no longer just firepower, but cost. Cheap, mass-produced drones costing tens of thousands of dollars can force the use of interceptor missiles worth millions, creating what he describes as a “strategic victory” even when the drones are shot down.
This shift in the economics of war is now being embraced even by major military powers. The US deployment of a Shahed-style system marks a notable moment where a superpower is adopting tactics born out of necessity by a heavily sanctioned state.
At the same time, Iran has demonstrated the effectiveness of overwhelming air defences through sheer volume. By launching swarms of drones and rockets, even highly advanced systems can be saturated and forced to fail.
Alongside this, the use of artificial intelligence is beginning to scale rapidly. In the opening phase of recent US strikes, around 1,000 targets were reportedly hit within 24 hours, in part due to AI-assisted targeting systems.
While the capability is seen as highly effective, it raises serious concerns about reliability and control. Malmgren highlights warnings from leading figures in the AI sector about the risks of fully autonomous weapons, including the possibility of vast, coordinated drone swarms operating with minimal human oversight.
The war has also seen the return of land-based missile systems, following the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. New long-range weapons are being developed and deployed, further expanding the range and intensity of potential future conflicts.
Malmgren argues that none of these developments exist in isolation. The history of the Shahed drone itself illustrates how military innovation is often the result of global knowledge transfer, both deliberate and accidental. Designs can be traced back through captured US technology and earlier systems linked to other countries, demonstrating how quickly ideas move across borders.
For Europe, the warning is clear. “If we want to protect ourselves from the threats of tomorrow,” Malmgren writes, “we have to pay close attention to how those threats are being developed and deployed today.”
As conflicts become increasingly interconnected, the battlefield in Iran is not just a regional flashpoint, but a glimpse of what may lie ahead for Europe.