Starmer faces the fight of his life as Brits head to the polls, writes Natasha Clark

Since then, it feels like the political landscape has drastically changed again, and at breakneck speed.

Reform, which has had a trickier year in the spotlight, needs to prove it has the momentum to continue winning through until the next general election.

The Lib Dems, which traditionally do well in local polls, are being squeezed by the Greens, whose recent insurgency has thrust leader Zack Polanski firmly into the spotlight, with mixed results.

Grumblings about Sir Ed Davey's leadership are quiet, but there.

Labour is now in a battle on two fronts - Reform and the Greens - in a bid to cling on to what they have.

The Tories are expected to lose seats overall - they're coming from a high baseline of wins four years ago - but Kemi Badenoch is pleasing her MPs in Westminster for now.

They're eyeing up some gains in Westminster and Brent, which may kick any chat of her leadership ambitions to the curb for a while longer.

Plaid looks set for a breakthrough in Wales, and the SNP is comfortably above rivals in Scotland, though neither has put independence front and centre in their campaigns.

They're also both staring down the barrel of being unable to form a majority government, too.

Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer faces the most difficult test of his premiership so far, and a fight for his job.

Ministers, activists and MPs are being deployed across the country to get out their vote, but it's going to be a huge uphill battle for the current governing party in Westminster.

Coming third in Wales would be their worst result in the country's history.

Losing the first minister will be the first of many headaches there, and we know Elun Morgan has not been discreet in her unhappiness with Starmer's leadership.

Scotland, too, will be tricky for Anas Sarwar, who called for Starmer to go, but who wasn't formally joined by any other major figures in his quest to knife him.

But it's the results in London and other traditional heartlands within cities that have really worried party insiders in the last few weeks.

In areas where Labour shored up support in the last few years, and where many of the Cabinet represent seats, Labour's vote now looks set to collapse.

Every special adviser, campaigner and activist within the Labour party accepts it's going to be a bloodbath.

What is uncertain is what will happen next.

The scale of the result will be bad, but this is already quite baked in.

We've already had a flurry of Labour MPs indicating the PM should stand down, or at least set out a timetable for his departure, though not yet a flood big enough to break the dam.

And there's no coordinated campaign ready to go, still, putting us in the same sort of limbo we saw after the loss of Gorton and Denton earlier this year.

Sources close to the Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, say he's unlikely to go over the top and call for him to quit, but is poised to run when others do so.

All eyes will be on his fellow leadership rival Angela Rayner, who is said to be ready to decide in the hours after the poll.

Yet her tax affairs are still not sorted.

Andy Burnham, another vocal critic, still has no seat in Westminster.

Cabinet disquiet is there, but there is a mood of 'wait and see' the results and how things play out with MPs.

And there is a feeling among many that if the electorate decides to continue giving Labour a kicking, it makes little sense to change the leader at this point in the election cycle.

No10 will be determined to get out their messages of 'we've listened, we will change, the war in Iran means we should not change leader now' over the weekend.

Whether it will hold and what will come next is anyone's guess.