Starmer faces the biggest decision of his premiership so far - to keep or sack Angela Rayner

The Housing Secretary has admitted to under-paying tens of thousands of pounds of stamp duty, which she attributes to incorrect legal advice, and a very complicated trust arrangement for her child.

All eyes are now on Sir Laurie Magnus, the independent ethics adviser, who is now probing the situation and whether it’s broken the ministerial code.

It’s expected to take just a few days for him to look into, based on past reports.

Reporting back before the weekend would lead to accusations of a whitewash, which the PM will be keen to avoid.

If she’s found to have broken the ministerial code, insiders both within the Labour Party and within government have admitted that she will have to go.

Sir Keir made such political capital out of his promise that if he became prime minister, gone would be the days of Tory sleaze.

He vowed to act swiftly and efficiently if ministers were found to have committed any wrong-doing whatsoever.

So far it’s unclear about whether Rayner’s under-paying of tax was a deliberate, careless, or simply innocent mistake.

But one has been made, and no one is denying that.

Sir Keir is this week, rather than getting on the front foot with a string of explosives policies to see off Reform’s party conference, expending significant political resources to try and save Rayner’s skin.

Similar ministers, including Rushanari Ali, the homelessness minister, after reports she evicted her tenants under a law that’s soon to be abolished, and Tulip Siddiq, after accusations about being wrapped up in her aunt’s Bangladeshi corruption trial (which she denies), were forced to step down within days.

So far, despite the situation appearing far more serious, there’s been no such move, although Rayner says she had debated resigning and clearly is feeling the pressure of her private life being flung into the public domain.

The Housing Secretary simply cannot be allowed to underpay thousands of pounds in stamp duty taxes, which are under her remit, and which the government is actively looking at changing further.

It will do nothing to dampen criticism of the government against the accusation that there’s “one rule for them, one rule for us”, as Rayner herself has said in the past.

The deputy PM has for years been the Labour Party's attack dog against Tory sleaze scandals.

Both herself and Sir Keir promised to uphold far higher standards than the government which came before them.

If it had been any other minister causing such an uproar, just two weeks before the party conference, she would be gone by now.

But Angela Rayner is no ordinary minister.

For a start, she is the deputy leader of the Labour Party, and an elected one too.

The ministerial probe won’t be able to absolve her of that role, even if she’s found to have committed wrong-doing.

She’s popular and well-liked across the Labour Party, and has strong links with unions and other Labour backers.

At a time where the party is already starting to appear more fragmented and unhappy, it would be a poor moment to cast the most left-wing minister aside.

One source suggested to me that it would be far more useful to have her in government, working on delivering Labour missions, than on the back benches, causing trouble, and potentially gearing herself up for a leadership challenge if the time ever came.

There are two possible explanations of the legal advice that are emerging; either Rayner failed to give them the relevant information, or they gave her the incorrect advice.

If it’s the former, or a muddled version of the two, Sir Keir faces a moment of maximum danger and a huge choice to make.

It’s clear that for now, he is willing to give her the benefit of the doubt that she took all possible avenues to try and pay the correct amount of tax.

Or, he feels that politically, she is just too valuable to lose from his top team at this moment in time.

The PM will face a big choice in the hours and days to come which could come to define his premiership, as it’s barely even begun.

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Natasha Clark is LBC's Political Editor.

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