Starmer may have bought himself safety for this week - but I still don't believe he can survive the fall, writes Andrew Marr

This afternoon, it's going his way. But a crucial hour for the survival of Keir Starmer as Prime Minister has just begun.

Yesterday, he lost his Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney.

This morning, he lost his Director of Communications, Tim Allen.

This afternoon, the leader of the Scottish Labour Party, Anas Sarwar, publicly called on him to go.

Then there was a great Cabinet-level and below rallying round. Lots of clearly orchestrated messages.

If Sarwar thought that others would follow him over the top, he must be looking over his shoulder tonight, feeling rather disappointed.

My conclusion is that the main rival camps for leadership both think the time is not quite right for them yet.

Wes Streeting because of past Peter Mandelson connections. Angela Rayner because she is still under investigation by HMRC.

Keir Starmer himself arrived at the packed committee room of the House of Commons to plead for his own survival in front of the Parliamentary Labour Party.

Listening to him right now, feeling grief and apprehension and anger, will be friends and enemies.

Both last-ditch supporters of his and the terminally disillusioned.

Experienced Labour grandees with years at the top behind them and really quite young MPs fearful they're going to lose their seats and their political futures before they have properly got started.

What Starmer says now, and the emotional response they have as they listen to him, will determine whether he remains our Prime Minister. He seems to have bought himself safety for this week, but I still don't believe that he can survive such a fall in authority and belief.

I've had more than four decades of reporting on politics. The first big fall I witnessed was Margaret Thatcher's 36 years ago. And my experience so far tells me that when a collapse of authority happens, things tend to move quickly and then accelerate.

The future, however, never mimics the past exactly.

It's perfectly possible that Keir Starmer manages to carry on for a long time. It's possible that, against predictions, Labour manages to win that Manchester by-election later in the month. It's possible that the May elections go better than expected.

It's all possible. But as I've told you already, I don't think it's likely.

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Andrew Marr is an author, journalist and presenter for LBC.

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