Starmer faces threat of Labour rebellion despite concessions as welfare vote looms

Ministers hope a partial U-turn over changes to the benefits system will be enough to win over Labour rebels when MPs vote on welfare reforms on Tuesday.

The concessions included protecting people currently claiming personal independence payment (PIP) from changes due to come into effect in November 2026, and rolling back plans to cut the health-related element of universal credit.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting told LBC on Sunday that the Government is right to admit when it is wrong and revealed he had “concerns” over the bill before last week’s changes were made.

But backbench anger has continued to simmer, with a statement from Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall laying out the concessions on Monday receiving a negative response.

Asked whether he was “confident” that the concessions had done enough to secure passage of the Universal Credit and Personal Independent Payment Bill, disabilities minister Sir Stephen Timms would only tell Sky News: “I certainly hope it passes.”

Elsewhere, LBC has can reveal polling, conducted before the partial U turn, showing concern among the public and the proposals.

The polling, commissioned by 38 Degrees and carried out by Survation found 31% of these polled were personally worried about the potential negative impact of the proposed welfare changes, whilst 34 % reported having a family member or friend who was worried. 

Some 82% of the public believe that if someone is unable to wash or clean themselves, they should continue to have financial support for managing their condition - with only 1 in 10 (10%) of those polled saying they should not. 

And 51% think the current welfare system does not treat those in need of social security with dignity and respect.

On Tonight with Andrew Marr on Tuesday, Sir Timms said: "I very much do hope we win the vote because this is a very positive package of reform and everybody agrees reform is needed."

Some 126 Labour MPs had previously signed a “reasoned amendment” proposed by Treasury Committee chairwoman Dame Meg Hillier that would have stopped the legislation if approved.

That rebellion appeared to have been averted after Dame Meg described concessions agreed on Friday as a “workable compromise”.

But in the Commons on Monday, she was one of several senior Labour figures to raise concerns about the Government’s revised proposals, while another MP involved in negotiations, Debbie Abrahams, suggested ministers had rowed back on what had been agreed.

A second amendment rejecting the Bill has been put forward by York Central MP Rachael Maskell with the backing of 138 disability groups, saying disabled people had “yet to have agency in this process”.

Ms Maskell’s amendment is reported to have been signed by only around 35 Labour MPs – far fewer than the 83 needed to overturn Sir Keir’s majority, but enough to deliver the largest rebellion of his premiership just before the first anniversary of Labour’s election victory.

Other sceptical MPs are expected to abstain on Tuesday, but could vote against the Bill next week if there are no further concessions.

One of the chief concerns revolves around a review of PIP to be carried out by Sir Timms and “co-produced” with disabled people.

His review is not expected to report until autumn next year, making it difficult to incorporate his findings into the PIP changes due to take place at the same time.

Ms Abrahams suggested the timing meant the outcome of the review was “pre-determined”, while Sarah Owen, another select committee chairwoman, warned it could create a “three-tier” benefit system.

Groups including Disability Rights UK and Disabled People Against Cuts criticised the Government’s claim that Sir Timms review would be “co-produced” with them and urged Labour rebels to stand firm.

They said: “The Government have made it very clear that they are intent on slashing the support that so many disabled people rely on to work and live independently, no matter how many disabled people tell them what a harmful policy this will be.”

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said her party’s MPs would vote against the proposals, describing them as “not serious welfare reform” and saying ministers had “watered down the small savings Labour were making”.

The original proposals were expected to save £4.8 billion by 2030, but Ms Kendall revealed on Monday that the revised proposals were likely to save less than half that figure.