Starmer’s fate will be sealed in Scotland

Scotland will be back at the centre of politics in a way it has not been in the decade since the SNP lost the independence referendum then nearly swept the board at the 2015 general election.

Twelve months ago the SNP were in disarray and Labour were riding high off a return of 37 Scottish MPs at the 2024 general election. Much has changed in a year. Much may change again in the year to come.

Scottish Labour have nosedived in the polls due to the association with an unpopular Westminster administration. First Minister John Swinney has brought his experience and skill to bear and righted the listing SNP ship. The SNP will be the largest party at May’s Holyrood elections.

There’s even talk they will upend the electoral system yet again and win an outright majority. If so, the so-called ‘indyref 2’, mooted since the morning of 19 September 2014 – immediately after the first one was lost - will shoot to the top of the political agenda.

Should Starmer choose not to follow David Cameron’s precedent and recognise a majority as a mandate for a plebiscite on quitting the UK, that will ensure that independence is on the ballot come the next general election, the SNP would scoop up seats and their MPs would have a single ask in any coalition negotiations that follow – no parliamentary support without the right to a referendum.

But aside from a constitutional crisis, how Scottish Labour fares may be the key factor in whether Starmer is still Prime Minister come July 2026, never mind 2029.

A Welsh wipeout is priced into Labour’s outlook for the new year. Unlike defeat in Scotland, it will be a novel experience for the party. But it will be both expected and self-inflicted (why Labour chose to alter the voting system in Wales to hand their opponents power is as baffling as it is stupid).

Local elections taking place on 7 May will bring more Reform councils and councillors. But that can be boxed off as typical for a mid-term government.

The Scottish result will come as a surprise to many pundits and politicians who have not been paying attention. Too many in Westminster still treat Scotland as an afterthought. One commentator recently told me they anticipate results in the London borough elections in May will carry more weight in deciding Starmer’s fate than the prospect of handing a part of the union a route to the exit door. It’s not the worst take, but it shows the parochialism of our political commentary.

Should Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour flop, defined as losing MSPs and/or coming third to Reform in Holyrood, Starmer will surely be toast. No Prime Minister can be seen to be playing fast and loose with the union. Those who seek to topple him can declare the fate of the nation too important to hold their fire and seek to trigger a leadership election.

When parliaments return in January, it will be the gossip in the Westminster tea rooms that will drive the political soap opera. But it’ll be votes far from London, across Scotland on 7 May, that may provide the drama in 2026.

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James Millar is senior counsel at Connect public affairs and former political correspondent for Scotland’s Sunday Post.

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