Summer could be ‘deadliest on record’ - as thousands feared dead in early summer heatwaves
The Met Office says over 2,700 people may have died in May and June heatwaves
England and Wales could be facing its deadliest summer on record after researchers estimated that 2,700 people died in May and June’s heatwaves alone.
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The extreme heatwaves have already been linked to tens of thousands of deaths across Europe, but this is the first estimate of their impact in the UK.
The researchers estimated that heat-related excess deaths in England and Wales had, by the end of the record-breaking June heatwave, already exceeded the estimated total for the whole of the previous summer by around 80%.
They found that around 42% of the deaths this year were directly linked to global warming, which added around 4C to maximum temperatures, warning that British summertime had become “dangerous”.
The research, by Imperial College London, the Met Office, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, found the June heatwave was among the top two deadliest on record, surpassing even the July 2022 heatwave, which saw the UK’s hottest ever temperature, partly because of higher overnight temperatures, which gave no respite from the heat.
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Fire Brigades Union general secretary Steve Wright said: "These figures are deeply alarming.
"Firefighters are seeing first-hand how climate change is increasing risks to our communities, from more wildfires and extreme weather events to the devastating impacts of extreme heat.
"This is another reminder that investing in climate resilience and properly funding our emergency and public services is no longer optional."
Wright added: "Andy Burnham has already signalled how seriously he takes this crisis."
However, the incoming Labour Prime Minister should call an emergency summit to specifically address the government's response to the ongoing wildfires we are facing this summer."
Although the highest temperatures were recorded in southern England, the Midlands suffered a similar heat-related death rate, suggesting communities less used to extreme heat were at greater risk.
As the UK continues to battle one of the longest sustained periods of heat since records began, one of the lead researchers told LBC it was “certainly possible” that heat related excess deaths had already exceeded 2022, which experts believe was the deadliest ever recorded.
Dr Clair Barnes, a research associate in extreme weather and climate change at Imperial College London, said “thousands” of elderly and vulnerable people across England and Wales were dying due to the heat.
“The exact numbers will depend on the method that you use, but we’re confident that these numbers are of the order of magnitude that we are going to be seeing.
“We’re talking thousands of people across England and Wales.”
Dr Barnes said the high death rate was directly linked to climate change, adding: “Without it, nearly half of the people that we estimate to have died would still be alive today.”
She said: “We need to face the uncomfortable truth that British summertime has become dangerous.
“Climate change is not just a future threat anymore – we’re experiencing the impacts here and now.
“As long as we keep seeing the most extreme temperatures, we are going to keep seeing dangerously high mortality.
“We must urgently adapt to the climate we now have, and double down on global efforts to achieve net zero emissions to stop this from getting worse.”
It comes amidst calls for the Government to introduce mandatory maximum temperatures in schools and workplaces to help adapt to the rising climate.
Over a thousand schools were closed across the country during the June heatwave, while travel disruption was widespread, and NHS workers warned of unbearable heat on hospital wards.
Ross Thompson, principle environmental public health scientist at the UK Health Security Agency, said that, while the report only presented an estimate of deaths based on data from past trends, it showed the “growing risks” of climate change.
He said: “We might get to a point where our summer heat excess deaths reach the same level as our cold excess deaths, which would be unprecedented.”
A spokesperson for the UKHSA added: "Periods of heat in the UK are likely to become more intense, longer and more frequent as the world continues to warm.
“UKHSA continues to develop its guidance and evidence, working with partners to protect the most vulnerable in our society who are most likely to feel the impacts of hot weather.”