'Super' El Niño phenomenon could bring unpredictable weather to UK
The arrival of a strong El Niño could bring record-breaking temperatures, as well as unpredictable weather and rainfall.
Climate scientists are predicting that weather phenomenon El Niño may impact weather patterns around the globe this year, with the UK likely to experience more dramatic spells this winter.
Listen to this article
El Niño refers to the warming of the sea surface temperature and occurs every few years according to the Met Office.
However, the arrival of a strong El Niño could see Britain experience yet another year of record-breaking temperatures, with unpredictable weather and rainfall likely too.
The event could see the UK set for a higher chance of colder spells during the winter months, despite boosting overall global temperatures in late 2026 and early 2027 by around 0.2C.
The most dramatic impacts remain in places closest to the Pacific waters - Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines, tend to be drier than normal, with drought and forest fires causing major problems, whereas South American nations like Peru and Ecuador can see much wetter weather, leading to devastating floods.
Despite this, the Met Office states: "El Niño years are one factor that can increase the risk of colder winters in the UK".
Read more: I Am Maximus wins Grand National for second time in dramatic finish
El Niño and La Niña are naturally occurring warm and cool phases of a climate pattern in the tropical Pacific.
The two are part of a cycle called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - El Niño drives up warmer temperatures, and La Nina results in the opposite effect, impacting colder temperatures.
The cooler phase of the ENSO cycle, La Niña, has been present since December 2024 and is still weakly present in the Pacific Ocean.
As a result, there have been temporarily low global temperatures - meaning 2025 was a slightly cooler year than 2024, the world's hottest year on record.
Climate scientists from the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are forecasting a transition from La Niña to more neutral conditions in the next month, which they predict will last until early summer in the northern hemisphere.
Later in the summer - between June to August - there is a 62% chance that El Niño will emerge, lasting until the end of the calendar year.
Despite the predictions, the strength of the upcoming weather patterns remains unclear.
The possibility remains that the upcoming El Niño could become a "strong" event - also known as a "Super El Niño" - should the sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific rise 1.5C above the long term average.
Currently the US Climate Prediction Center suggests a one in three chance of that happening between October and December 2026.
The most recent strong weather events in this pattern included a few months of a strong El Niño in late 2023, and a sustained period in 2015-16.
The phenomenon is believed to have been first observed by Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s, who nicknamed the weather occurrence "El Niño de Navidad", with the name translating to "Christ Child" in Spanish.