The longtime Labour voters who will decide Andy Burnham's fate

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Ahead of this crucial contest, LBC has been speaking to former Labour voters who are deciding whether to hand the seat, and possibly the keys to Number 10, to Burnham or to inflict a fresh wound on the Labour government by electing Robert Kenyon as Makerfield’s new MP. 

To understand what will sway their decision, LBC and Opinium, the polling company, organised two focus groups composed of long-time Labour voters, some of whom admitted they had often supported the party “out of habit."

In the first group, LBC spoke to those who had previously voted for Labour but switched to Reform in either the recent local elections or in 2024. The second group was made up of undecided former voters, who could still be persuaded to vote for Andy Burnham. The conversations took place on June 8 and 9.

Across both groups, the conversations turned to areas of their everyday lives which seemed to epitomise the ways the political system was under delivering. 

“I was brought up to support Labour because they are - or were - for working people,” says Sonia, a disaffected voter who will be switching to Kenyon in the by-election. 

Sonia pointed to the decline she’s witnessed in the streets of Makerfield as a key reason for turning to Nigel Farage’s party, but nonetheless has her reservations as to whether Nigel Farage’s party will be able to address them. 

“You only have to walk out of your door - if you can’t see what’s going on around you, you must be blind: boarded up shops, graffiti, litter, homelessness, drugs, drink - you can see it.

“I don’t think [Reform] are going to be any better than Labour, or the Conservatives, or the Liberal Democrats,” Sonia concedes. “At this time, they’re favourable to me, Reform - [but that] could change in a couple of years.”

It’s clear that Burnham’s personal brand is a crucial factor, however. 

"If Andy Burnham wasn't in the mix, I'd be going Reform, I think,” one respondent said. 

"If they said Andy Burnham will probably be the next Prime Minister. Yeah, I'd probably vote for him,” another added. 

Even among those who were considering voting for Burnham, there was still underlying dissatisfaction with the Labour government. 

“Labour's okay, but I don't think the Prime Minister's doing enough," says Nicola, an undecided voter who works as a carer in Ashton. “He promises everything but doesn’t deliver.”

Meanwhile, Karen, an NHS worker and mother, was not “completely convinced” she would stick with Labour despite the presence of Andy Burnham on the ballot. 

“I've tended to vote Labour in the hope that they might fix the NHS. Obviously, that's where I work and that's where my passion is."

Karen began questioning her commitment to Labour following the welfare rebellion last year, where the government was forced to abandon its proposal to tighten eligibility criteria for Personal Independence Payments (PIP).

"I think the thing that caught my attention was around benefits and, like, topping up Universal Credit and things like that. If people [are on] PIP, if they can work, then they perhaps should."

For others, these mistakes have been too much, even with Burnham on the ballot paper. 

Referring to Burnham, Sue, 58, concluded: “Whatever talking head is here it's the party as a whole. If you're in the party, you know the manifesto, you know the agenda, and as far as I'm concerned, you're complicit. You're over. That's it. It's gone. So no more Labour for me." 

Immigration was also frequently cited as a major factor for voters in Makerfield. 

“Too many people are coming in and we’re trying to squash too many people into areas… It took me 2 years to get my daughter into a dentist and I live in a village,” says Dan, a father in his mid-thirties, a concern echoed by Tom, a father of two from Wigan, who lists immigration as one of his “biggest irks”.  

Recent polling suggests that Burnham has developed a lead over his nearest rival, Robert Kenyon. Opinium’s own survey of 543 local residents placed Burnham on 46%, compared to Kenyon’s 41%. 

Restore, the party founded by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, are polling at around 7% according to Opinium - a return which, according to this data, would be enough to deprive Reform of a majority in the seat. 

Another poll, commissioned by Labour and published by the i Paper, gave Burnham an eleven-point lead. 

Josh Simons, the MP whose resignation triggered the contest last month, won a majority of 5,399 in the 2024 General Election. 

At the local elections, however, Reform UK won all eight wards contested across the constituency. 

Priya Minhas, Associate Director at Opinium, said the research shows that despite discontent being common among former Labour voters, constituents were not wedded to Reform as an alternative. 

“For many participants, support for Reform was driven less by deep enthusiasm for the party and more by disappointment with Labour. Reform was often seen as the clearest vehicle for change and the most viable alternative in what many viewed as a two-horse race,” she said.

“Andy Burnham's personal appeal was one of the few factors keeping Labour in the conversation among some wavering voters. Participants often described him as more authentic, more grounded and, for some, more connected to local concerns than the national Labour Party. 

“However, that advantage had limits. Among those who had already decided to back Reform, Burnham was still viewed through the lens of Labour itself. For these voters, dissatisfaction ran deeper than leadership and appeared to be rooted in perceptions of the party as a whole.”