Tories 'on course for 14 seats' at next election, internal poll suggests

The internal research indicates the party is on course for an unprecedented collapse in a situation one insider described as an “existential threat” to the party.

The projections, carried out by Stack Data Strategy, and leaked to The Telegraph, suggest Reform UK would emerge with a 46-seat majority.

The results are likely to intensify scrutiny of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, with some critics arguing she allowed Nigel Farage and Reform “to fill the political vacuum” during her early months in charge.

One senior figure inside Tory HQ warned the party risked “being consigned to the history books” if the trend continues.

The polling model estimates the Conservatives would secure just 17 per cent of the vote and hold only 14 seats - three across the North of England and Scotland, one in the Midlands and a small number in their traditional Home Counties strongholds.

In London, the party is projected to retain as few as four seats, while being wiped out across the rest of England entirely.

Although Mrs Badenoch is said to have improved her performance in recent weeks, the findings will fuel concerns about the scale of the challenge facing the Conservatives as they attempt to rebuild support.

Leaked election modelling circulating inside Conservative Campaign Headquarters has triggered renewed alarm among senior figures, with insiders warning the party is facing an “existential threat”.

According to The Telegraph, the findings are being shared within the Conservative Research Department at CCHQ and have intensified concerns about the scale of the party’s decline.

One Tory source said: “This is absolutely an existential threat. It goes to show the level of work that needs doing, and I don’t think the leadership has always grasped how much they need to do to survive. This is a clear wake-up call.”

The source also raised doubts about Kemi Badenoch’s ability to stabilise the party, adding: “I just don’t think Kemi knows what to do. I don’t think she’s a bad person. I just think the task is beyond her.”

Another Conservative insider said the situation had continued to deteriorate. “The direction of travel is just terrible. The party is heading for an extinction event. It is clearly not working for Kemi.

"The harsh reality is that while Kemi’s performance has improved recently, it has had absolutely no effect on the polls. It’s the wrong strategy and it’s too late. The public has made up its mind about her.”

The analysis, carried out by Stack Data Strategy, suggests Reform UK would secure 348 seats on 30% of the vote.

Nigel Farage has reportedly taken to calling Mrs Badenoch “Santa Claus” in private, telling colleagues that “every day is like Christmas” for Reform with her leading the Conservatives.

It is understood a constituency-level breakdown would show only Mrs Badenoch and shadow home secretary Chris Philp retaining their seats from the current frontbench.

Pollsters say the relatively even spread of remaining Conservative support means the party’s projected 17% vote share translates into far fewer seats than the headline figure suggests.

Last year, when Rishi Sunak led the Conservatives to their worst post-war result, winning 121 seats on 23.7% of the vote.

Stack’s model puts Labour on 24%, equating to 161 seats, down from the 411 it won last summer.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 63 seats on 13% of the vote due to strong regional concentration, particularly in the South West.

Stack’s projections are based on multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP), a technique using large datasets to estimate outcomes in all 650 constituencies.

The results appear even more severe for the Conservatives than other recent MRP studies, though broadly in line with the wider downward trend.

A YouGov MRP model in September predicted the Tories would win 45 seats, with Reform close to a majority. An Electoral Calculus MRP poll in October put the Conservatives on 15% and 24 seats.

The latest internal findings reinforce concerns among Tory MPs that the party is struggling to find a route back to electoral relevance — and that time to reverse course is running out.

A spokesman for Stack told the newspaper: “Our expert team regularly run major polls and models so that we have the latest data on UK and US politics. This analysis, which is from the summer, was paid for by Stack Data and was not commissioned or funded by any other entity or political party.”

Allies of Mrs Badenoch said: “The Conservative Party hasn’t commissioned any such polling from Stack. But the quickest way to show that we haven’t listened and we haven’t learnt from our biggest-ever defeat last year is to dissolve into more fights about leadership.

“From her forcing out Mandelson and Rayner, to her conference speech resetting the party on stronger economy and stronger borders, Kemi has shown she has the backbone, team and plan to take the Conservative Party back to Downing Street.

“And anyone who is trying to say otherwise just wants our party to fail.”

The Conservative Party have been contacted by LBC for comment.