Does Gen X need the triple lock?
Yesterday was a huge day for those with an interest in the State Pension triple lock.
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The Prime Minister’s announcement was more detailed than many expected but also left open some key questions.
From Age UK’s perspective, the devil will be in the detail as it emerges. People often debate the merits of the triple lock in relation to current pensioners – people aged 66+.
We less often think about what it means for the pensioners of the future. Doing that means thinking about people’s prospects for building private pensions.
The Pensions Commission(s) and auto-enrolment
The (second) Pensions Commission, set up by the Starmer Government in 2025, is looking at how to help more people save more into private pensions.
This is hugely important for the financial security of future pensioners. Reform is now critical; according to the Commission, ‘we are currently on course for tomorrow’s pensioners to be poorer than today’s.’
The first Pensions Commission 20 years ago recommended auto-enrolment – defaulting eligible workers into private pension saving.
This was brought in gradually between 2012 and 2018. It has been broadly successful, increasing the number of people saving.
Despite this, too many people are still not saving into a private pension at all – an alarming 45% of working age people are in that boat.
Less time to save
Among those who are saving, many aren’t saving enough. This is where the situation for Gen X (born 1965‑1980, aged 45-61) is especially worrying.
They have spent a lower proportion of their career under auto enrolment than younger groups. They have had less time to build up their savings.
We can estimate how this will play out in future. Pensions UK has a ‘Minimum’ Retirement Living Standard – a basket of basics people need in later life, including food, clothing, leisure and transport.
Gen X are more likely to have retirement incomes that miss this basic standard (15%) than Millennials (born 1981‑1996 – 11%) and Gen Z (1997‑2012 – 10%).
Less likely to own their home
Most over 65s today own their home (80%).
This reduces people’s outgoings significantly, taking the pressure off their income compared to renters (although owners still face costs of maintenance and repair).
But home ownership is falling. For 55-64 year-olds, home ownership in England has fallen from 82% in 2003‑04 to 71% in 2024‑25.
The proportion renting privately has more than doubled, from 4% to 10%.
So compared to current retirees, more people in Gen X will be renting through retirement.
This may put people under severe pressure, especially where they have modest incomes.
Ensuring a decent State Pension
So, we have some big trends and risks for Gen X – less time to save into pensions, less likely to own their home.
Further, many in their 50s and early 60s are not working – unemployed, sick, providing care. They aren’t saving into a pension but they are having to use up savings to tide them over.
The State Pension age is rising to 67 – which means longer to wait for the relative security of a State Pension, longer to use up their savings in the meantime.
What does all this mean for the topic of the hour – the triple lock? In short, many Gen Xers will be fully or largely reliant on the State Pension while facing big cost pressures.
And a less generous State Pension will make it hard to live with dignity and security.
A decent State Pension means those who lean heavily on it can afford to eat decent food and keep their home warm and safe. It means they can afford to travel to medical appointments, engage in their community and have a social life.
Too many current pensioners don’t have these things.
That’s why the triple lock has been invaluable – it has been pushing up the value of the State Pension for years.
And there is a case for it to be pushed up further – not least for Gen X.
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Phil Mawhinney is the Policy Manager for Poverty & Income at Age UK
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