Trump’s Falklands threat shows clearly his reckless and rudderless US foreign policy

After weeks of arguing with NATO allies, the Trump administration continues to favour the clumsy application of the stick rather than the carrot.

The administration’s latest diplomatic miscalculation comes from a leaked Pentagon memo that suggests reviewing US backing of the UK’s claim to the Falkland Islands; a potential punishment for failing to support the US’s war against Iran.

Already the email has caused a diplomatic incident, with Downing Street reiterating the UK’s longstanding, and unchanged, position on the right of the Falkland Islanders to self-determination.

If the administration is seriously considering such a move, it is evidence of a floundering foreign policy that completely misunderstands NATO and the UK-US alliance.

As with many of the Trump administration’s diplomatic tantrums, even considering this move is self-defeating. Whilst Trump and Starmer have disagreed publicly over the extent of Britain’s involvement in the war, the US has used British bases and our military has been involved in the defence of US assets and other allies in the Middle East.

Any suggestion that the US would review the status of the Falklands, an outrageous attack on British sovereign territory, would surely put this cooperation in doubt. The language of threats and punishments make it incredibly difficult for European allies to take any of the criticisms of the administration on board.

The same pattern occurred in January with the president’s idiotic rhetoric on Denmark. Legitimate concerns about Arctic security were buried under bombastic ‘51st state’ rhetoric and thinly-veiled insults at NATO members that they were powerless to stop US territorial ambition.

It is clear that some in the administration did not realise the weight of President Trump’s words; US officials spoke with an air of annoyance, frustrated that Denmark refused to work with the US on their concerns.

Unfortunately, it seems the connection between Denmark’s reluctance and US threats to annex sovereign territory went over the heads of most administration officials.

The fact that the Pentagon would even consider a Falkland’s sovereignty review as an option is evidence of the administration’s clueless tactics when dealing with European allies.

The administration must know that the US’s war is deeply unpopular in Europe, especially as energy prices begin to rise, it is therefore already politically difficult for European leaders to lend support to US efforts.

Vindictive moves like reviewing the status of the Falklands make this even harder. It is rare, nowadays, for British politicians to find a foreign policy consensus, the Trump administration is helping unite UK politics against it.

Cooking up a plan to punish allies does nothing to address the real security threats posed by Iran or the wider need for European allies to continue building defence capacity. In fact, it gives European politicians an excuse to continue prevaricating on much-needed defence spending increases.

We must not allow the rhetoric of the Trump administration to poison the well of the discussion on European security. Even a broken, desk-slamming clock is right twice a day.

The president’s supporters often ask commentators to take him ‘seriously, but not literally’, often in an attempt to excuse his latest hyperbole, lie, or threat. This tiresome adage excusing the rhetoric should be retired.

The Trump administration has proven, thus far, unable or unwilling to work productively with Europe to address major security challenges, from Ukraine to Iran. This latest furore over the Falklands is simply more of the same.

This Falkland’s incident is typical of the administration’s woeful foreign policy rhetoric. Much ink will be spilled, meetings will be had, statements will be made, all for a throwaway, petulant proposal which likely will not come to fruition anyway.

It is perhaps wishful thinking to call for the administration to reign in the president’s threats, or ideally take his phone away, but this is what a transatlantic alliance reset will require.

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Mackenzie France is Director of Strategy at The Pinsker Centre, a think tank focused on international relations and Middle Eastern affairs.

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