Could this be the day the UK falls apart?

For the first time since the Middle Ages, there will be nationalist administrations in Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.

Look out for political commentators stating, ‘the centre cannot hold’. As if London is the centre. Part of the reason the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin will all have power is that their voters do not recognise London as the centre of anything beyond metropolitan nincompoopery at best and corruption at worst.

And yet the closer we got to polling day, the more it felt that the focus of our political and media class didn’t stretch beyond the gates of Downing Street. Will Keir Starmer reshuffle? Will he quit or be overthrown before he gets the chance?

A huge amount of Westminster previews are simply totting up how many council seats Reform will win and how many the Tories and Labour will lose. That metric is then applied to the chances of Lucy Powell or Angela Rayner getting a Cabinet job.

The arc of history is unlikely to concern itself with whether the ‘soft left’ is up or down.

It is not over the top to suggest that this week may herald the beginning of the end of the United Kingdom. Or the acceleration of a process that began in 1945 or 1947 or 1815 or 1918, according to taste.

An SNP majority is not beyond the realms of possibility (according to some pollsters, it is the most likely outcome). And that may trigger the unravelling. As per events in 2011, the precedent is set that a majority inexorably leads to an independence referendum. Whether that comes about as part of confidence negotiations following the next general election or in some other circumstance, the path to the UK’s collapse is fairly easy to follow.

Of course, the SNP may fall short of a majority (though it remains highly likely there’ll be a pro-independence majority in Holyrood once the Greens are folded in) and Plaid will certainly not start agitating for a split straight away. In Ireland, too, Sinn Féin seems content to play a (not too) long game.

And Reform’s performance in England does matter in light of those nationalist wins in Wales and Scotland. The mood and make-up of England will determine the independence prospectus elsewhere - what it looks like and its chances of success.

Results in Sunderland and Southwark will be worth watching and considering for their implications for our party system and the fate of Keir Starmer. But the fate of the nation is at stake, and that will be decided in all the capitals of the UK. The next steps following inevitable wins for the SNP and Plaid Cymru deserve as much, if not more, attention than the shuffling of seats at the Cabinet table.

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James Millar is senior counsel at Connect public affairs and former political correspondent for Scotland’s Sunday Post.

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