Britain could waste billions on defence if spending doesn’t actually produce equipment the military can use, industry chief warns

An industry leader has warned that rising UK defence spending will count for little unless it results in equipment and systems that can actually be deployed at scale.

Writing for LBC Opinion, Rob Harper, founder and chief executive of Rowden, said the national debate is too focused on headline budgets rather than whether investment is translating into real-world military capability.

He argued that the only meaningful measure of success is whether spending produces technology that can be fielded in sufficient numbers to make a difference on operations.

“The challenge is not intent, but execution,” he said, pointing to a persistent gap between strategic ambition and what is ultimately delivered.

Harper warned that structural issues within the defence system are holding back progress, with parts of the industrial base still geared towards outcomes that are “good enough” rather than genuinely effective.

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He said current incentives often reward process over performance, while a low tolerance for risk pushes decision-makers towards safer, less innovative options.

That, he suggested, is less about individual failure and more a reflection of how the system is designed.

“There is also a growing gap between those buying technology and those building it,” Harper said, warning that the Ministry of Defence is not yet equipped to properly assess increasingly complex systems or manage contracts that require continuous development.

The comments come as the UK looks to ramp up defence investment amid growing global instability, with ministers under pressure to ensure increased funding translates into operational strength.

Harper pointed to early signs of reform, including the shift towards a portfolio-based approach under the National Armaments Directorate, which aims to manage groups of capabilities rather than isolated programmes.

He said the model could improve efficiency and speed up upgrades, but only if supported by stronger technical expertise and better coordination across the system.

To ensure higher spending delivers results, Harper outlined three key changes he believes are needed.

First, he called for stronger independent technical scrutiny, including the creation of a non-profit body to properly evaluate suppliers and close the knowledge gap between government and industry.

Second, he said incentives must be overhauled so that companies delivering results are rewarded, while those that underperform face clear consequences.

Finally, he urged the UK to focus its efforts on areas where it already has a competitive edge, such as advanced connectivity, artificial intelligence and manufacturing, and to build scalable, exportable capabilities around them.

Despite the criticism, Harper insisted the UK defence sector is not in decline, pointing to the country’s strong skills base and technological expertise.

But he warned that without fundamental changes, simply increasing budgets will not solve the underlying problems.

“Unless spending is matched with delivery, more money alone will not fix the problem,” he said.

The warning adds to a growing debate over whether Britain’s defence posture reflects its spending commitments, with critics increasingly questioning whether the armed forces are equipped for modern threats despite rising investment.