Stark warning over the UK's ability to defend itself as Iran war threatens vital shipping route

Writing exclusively for LBC Opinion, Joakim Sjöblom, CEO and co-founder of Swedish defence company SWEBAL, said the chaos triggered by attacks in the Strait of Hormuz had exposed a dangerous vulnerability in Europe’s military supply chains.

The narrow waterway, one of the most important shipping routes in the world, has become a focal point of the escalating conflict following US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation across the region.

While much of the immediate focus has been on oil markets, the disruption has also raised alarm within the defence industry about the security of supply chains that underpin Western weapons production.

“We find ourselves in the alarming situation where our ability to fight for a sustained period of time can be throttled because of our reliance on a geographical chokepoint in one of the most unstable regions on Earth,” Sjöblom said.

The Strait of Hormuz handles a huge share of global energy exports but is also a vital route for container shipping. Attacks in the region forced vessels to reroute, with some shipping companies now diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to journeys and creating uncertainty for manufacturers.

For Europe’s defence sector, those delays could prove particularly dangerous.

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Modern weapons rely on complex global supply chains, including rare earth minerals, semiconductors and energetic materials used in explosives and propellants. Many of those components still come from overseas.

Sjöblom warned that while European governments are now pouring billions into expanding weapons production, factories alone will not solve the problem.

“The factories you build are only as useful as the supply chains that feed them,” he said.

“If the electronic components or explosives needed for interceptor missiles are stuck on the other side of the world due to supply chain disruption, those factories simply cannot operate.”

The warning comes as the UK and its allies increase military readiness across the region amid fears of further escalation.

Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon sailed from Portsmouth yesterday to the eastern Mediterranean, where it will help protect Cyprus and RAF bases on the island from potential missile or drone attacks by Iran or its proxies.

A second British vessel could also be sent to the region. Landing ship RFA Lyme Bay is being brought to heightened readiness in case it is required for operations in the eastern Mediterranean.

The ship has aviation and medical facilities that could support evacuation operations if the situation deteriorates.

A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “As part of prudent planning, we have taken the decision to bring RFA Lyme Bay to heightened readiness as a precaution, should she be needed to assist in maritime tasks in the eastern Mediterranean.”

British forces are already heavily engaged in defensive operations in the region.

The Ministry of Defence said British pilots have flown more than 230 hours on defensive missions, while a ground-based UK unit recently intercepted a drone in Iraqi airspace that was heading towards coalition forces.

The conflict has also triggered economic anxiety across Europe.

Oil prices spiked sharply on Monday amid fears that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted, briefly pushing Brent crude above 100 dollars a barrel before prices fell back in volatile trading.

By Tuesday morning Brent crude had dropped more than 8% to just under 91 dollars a barrel after US President Donald Trump suggested the military action against Iran would be a “short-term excursion”.

Markets also recovered some lost ground, with the FTSE 100 rising 1.6% shortly after opening.

But economists warned the conflict could still have lasting consequences for the UK economy.

The British Chambers of Commerce said inflation was likely to remain “firmly above” the Bank of England’s 2% target due to the uncertain global outlook.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has acknowledged the crisis is likely to push up prices in the UK and said the government was ready to support a coordinated international release of oil reserves if necessary.

She also called for action to “guarantee the security of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz”.

Despite the easing in oil prices, the conflict has reignited concerns about Europe’s strategic vulnerability to disruptions in global trade.

According to Sjöblom, Western defence planning has long relied on globalised supply chains that may no longer be reliable in an increasingly unstable world.

Russia and China have both dramatically expanded domestic weapons manufacturing capacity in recent years, while many European countries have remained dependent on imports for key components.

Sjöblom is currently overseeing the construction of one of the first TNT production facilities in Europe since the Cold War, part of a broader effort to rebuild the continent’s domestic supply of energetic materials.

“Western nations need to think about defence holistically,” he said.

“If the world is becoming more chaotic and fractured, relying on countries on the other side of that fragmented world for critical components is simply not a sustainable strategy.”

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, he added, was a warning of how quickly a regional conflict could ripple through global supply chains.

“The world is now predictable in its unpredictability,” he said.

“The best way to safeguard ourselves is to shorten our supply chains and rebuild the industrial capacity we need to defend ourselves.”