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UK Inflation falls to 2.8 percent in the year to April - as price rises expected this summer

The figure falls from the previous figure of 3.3% in March - but experts admit price rises are on the cards this summer

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UK Inflation falls to 2.8 percent in the year to April with fall exceeding economists predictions
UK Inflation falls to 2.8 percent in the year to April with fall exceeding economists predictions. Picture: Alamy

By Danielle de Wolfe

Inflation has slowed to 2.8% in April from 3.3% in March, according to official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) - as economists warn of price rises this summer.

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Economists had expected inflation to fall to around 3%, with the ONS figure superseding forecasts.

The fall comes in large part down to increases in utility bills and other regulated prices in April last year falling out of the annual comparison.

Ofgem had lowered its energy price cap from the start of April by 7%, or £10 a month, for the average household using both electricity and gas – which was driven by Government measures to reduce bills.

Before the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran began on February 28, the Bank of England said inflation in Britain - that has been the highest among the G7 economies for much of the last four years - was likely to be close to its 2% target in April.

It comes as Rachel Reeves's Treasury asked supermarkets to limit food prices in return for deregulation, reports claim, as retail firms slam the Government for policies it says are driving up costs.

Read more: Supermarkets asked to cap price of eggs, bread and milk but bosses slam Reeves for '1970s-style price control'

Read more: John Lewis, Boots and Debenhams Black Friday deal ads ‘misled shoppers’

London, England, UK. 13th May, 2026. Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, departs 10 Downing Street in London, UK, ahead of the State Opening of Parliament and the King's Speech.
London, England, UK. 13th May, 2026. Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, departs 10 Downing Street in London, UK, ahead of the State Opening of Parliament and the King's Speech. Picture: Alamy

But the energy price shock from the war prompted the BoE to increase sharply its inflation forecasts which, it says, could hit 6.2% early next year under its most inflationary scenario.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to outline a package of cost-of-living support this week in response.

Ms Reeves said: “The war in Iran is not our war but one we will need to respond to, and the decisions I took in the budget last year have kept inflation down as we deal with global instability.

“We have the right economic plan, and to change course now would risk our economic stability and leave working people worse off.

“We have already taken £117 off energy bills, frozen rail fares, and lifted the two-child limit, and over today and tomorrow I’ll set out the next phase of how we will support UK households.”

UK inflation is set to have eased last month as a drop in household energy bills offset a jump in fuel prices but experts warned of turbulence ahead as the Iran energy price shock "catches up" with the cost of living.
UK inflation is set to have eased last month as a drop in household energy bills offset a jump in fuel prices but experts warned of turbulence ahead as the Iran energy price shock "catches up" with the cost of living. Picture: Alamy

Taking to X, Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride praised the "welcome" fall but added that "prices are still rising far too fast".

"Labour have left our economy weak and exposed to the impacts of the Iran war," he wrote on X.

He added that a "recent spike in borrowing costs" showed the markets are "increasingly worried" about uncertainty - hitting out at the prospect of a Labour leadership contest.

"Only the Conservatives have a leader with the backbone and strong team needed to restore confidence and bring debt down through our golden economic rule," he adds.

Meanwhile Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper MP said:  “Runaway food inflation and an imminent increase in the energy price cap mean that today’s figures will provide little comfort to households and businesses struggling to make ends meet."