UK drivers could face spike in petrol prices after US and Israeli strikes on Iran

Concerns have grown around access to a key trade route for oil tankers as Iran launched retaliatory strikes in response to the military action which saw the assassination of former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday.

On Sunday, three vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow opening of the Persian Gulf which acts as a vital shipping route for the global oil trade, were struck by an "unknown projectile," according to the UK Maritime Trade Organisation (UKMTO).

At least 150 tankers dropped anchor in the open Gulf waters beyond the strait on Sunday, suggesting significant disruption.

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Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at energy intelligence firm Rystad Energy, said that if the strait was blocked, the resulting spike in oil prices could directly impact consumers in the UK.

The Strait of Hormuz sees between 15 million barrels of crude oil pass through its waters each day, amounting to around a third of the global crude trade, Mr Leon said.

Qatar, on the Persian Gulf, is one of the world’s biggest exporters of liquified natural gas, and closing the strait could also impact these shipments, he added.

Disruptions in the liquid natural gas markets could drive up gas prices, which Mr Leon said were closely linked to the price of electricity.

Mr Leon said: "A higher electricity price will feed through the global economy, and, in particular in the UK, (lead to) higher inflation.

"We have a direct effect which is higher prices at the pump and higher electricity bills, but also a secondary effect, which is things will get more expensive because inflation might increase."

Mr Leon said that this outcome would only materialise if there was no de-escalation of conflict in the region, and the disruption was lasting.

The actions of the Iranian government over the coming days would have a "massive impact" on this, he said, adding: "The initial signals that we are seeing is that they are taking quite a hawkish approach at the moment.

"They keep attacking the rest of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries, so we don’t think (de-escalation) will happen, or, at least, it’s not happening now."

Even if Iran shows signs of de-escalation, it could take a few weeks for shipping to return to normal as traffic clears and operators remain hesitant to use the strait, he said.

But John Stawpert, principal director marine at the International Chamber of Shipping, the global trade association for shipowners and operators, said this was not the industry’s "first rodeo," and believed it would adapt to challenges in the region.

Mr Stawpert said: "It’s important to stress that, whilst this is a big shock, and we are very concerned about reported attacks against shipping in the region, trade is continuing to flow, the straits are not closed, so any impact that we would see is likely to be minimal unless there is a big change in the security dynamic in that region."

"We will continue to assess the situation, shipping lines will continue to do real-time assessments of the threats vessels will face.

"Ultimately, this isn’t our first rodeo, unfortunately, we have experienced these sorts of threats before in other parts of the world, and shipping is very well placed to adapt in the face of a crisis."