This is how the UK should prepare for war with Russia

These words are both reassurance and caution for a Europe that yet again is keeping a watchful eye on the east.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently echoed this sentiment, warning that the Alliance may need to prepare for the possibility of war with Russia.

At first glance, Russia appears weak. Its invasion of Ukraine has exposed its military shortcomings.

The plan to seize Kyiv in a matter of days collapsed almost immediately. Since then, Moscow has failed to subdue a country roughly 28 times smaller than itself.

This is a testament not just to Ukraine’s bravery, but also the disorganised nature of Russia’s armed forces.

UK Ministry of Defence analysis suggests over 1 million Russians have died or been wounded, much of it due to clumsy tactics.

But complacency would be a serious mistake.

Russia may have underperformed in Ukraine. But it still has its strengths.

One area where Russia excels is “grey zone” tactics. These are actions designed to cause harm and disruption, but strike just under the level of armed attack.

Moscow’s cyber army has hacked into our computer systems, disabling NHS networks and causing millions of pounds of damage. Its submarines prowl off our coasts, and its drones probe our airports.

The question is whether the Kremlin would launch a “hot war” with NATO as its fortunes fade in Ukraine? The short answer is “maybe”.

Russian history has proven that if a war goes badly wrong, it can lead to popular unrest that topples the government. This happened to the Tsar in World War I, and Boris Yeltsin, following his fumbling of the First Chechen War.

Putin has no desire to be toppled and may decide an “all or nothing” war against the West could secure his position. He is counting on a short, sharp lightning war against an exposed NATO member, and then hopes we fear nuclear war too much to retaliate.

There are pain points the Kremlin could attack. A focused assault from Belarus could close the Suwalki Gap, isolate the Baltic countries, and pave the way for invasion before NATO reinforcements could arrive.

Russia’s submarines that lurk off our coasts could cut undersea cables and cause billions of pounds of damage. Its drones could land explosives on targets its drone incursions have spent weeks scouting.

When protestors can break into RAF Brize Norton and cause harm, it is not difficult to imagine the damage a hostile state could inflict with intent and preparation.

We can and must stand up to this. Britain’s servicemen and women are among the finest in the world, and their courage and professionalism are a major asset lined up against Putin’s conscript army.

NATO maintains an unassailable economic advantage over Russia in buying and equipping our forces. Western military technology is the envy of the world.

Our allies in Ukraine have shown us how Russia operates, and these strategic and tactical insights will make the Kremlin hesitate.

Napoleon’s warning still holds. Russia is never as weak as it appears - but neither is it as strong as it claims.

If NATO stands united, invests in credible defence, and maintains a posture of clear and confident deterrence, the Kremlin will be reminded that aggression carries unacceptable costs.

Strength, not hesitation, remains the surest guarantor of peace.
____________________

Michael McManus is Director of Research at The Henry Jackson Society.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email opinion@lbc.co.uk