Has sending half of young people to university delivered on its promise?

But in the reality of the 2026 labour market, with graduates struggling to get jobs and acute skills shortages in key sectors, it is legitimate to ask whether that promise still holds, or whether we sold young people a very expensive dream.

Let’s start with the widely misunderstood “50 percent target.” It was never a formal policy. Blair’s soundbite also referred to higher learning in the round, including technical and professional routes.

But since then, university growth has been huge, with around 2.9 million students enrolled in higher education (HE) in 2023-24 – a third higher than when Blair coined the line.

At UCAS, I saw firsthand how demand remains strong, with the current 750,000 total applications each year projected to breach one million by the end of the decade.

That expansion has delivered real benefits. Participation from disadvantaged backgrounds rose significantly. The UK strengthened its outstanding global reputation for HE.

Large amounts of public and private investment followed, while the upfront cost to taxpayers (most of whom don’t attend university) is limited by the tuition fees system. Those gains matter, and they are too often ignored.

Robust demand for HE shouldn’t be confused with achieving a system that’s delivering for learners and the economy, however.

Alongside expansion, a tail of low-quality HE has grown. One in four graduates are not in professional-level employment 15 months after graduating. Over a third of graduates are overqualified for their roles.

For a minority, going to university actually results in lower lifetime earnings once loan repayments are considered. This is not an argument against HE itself – and we should be proud of the UK’s world class universities. But it does point to reform being needed.

Young people can be encouraged into courses without honesty about realistic benefits, while universities face limited consequences for poor performance and perverse incentives from government to increase numbers on courses that are cheap to deliver. The current government hasn’t shown any sign of addressing this.

At the same time, employers continue to say they have acute shortages in high-skill vacancies, especially across technical and digital roles.

The scale of the financial risk should sharpen our concern. Outstanding student loan debt now stands at £267 billion, close to 10 percent of UK public debt. It’s projected to hit £500 billion in just over a decades time. Despite this, most universities are financially stretched.

The renaissance of degree apprenticeships over the ten years has helped, but not enough.

So, the real issue is not whether expanding HE was a mistake. It is that expansion without relentless focus on quality, honesty on career chances, and expanding technical and apprenticeship routes at the same pace has left too many young people navigating a system that promises more than it delivers.

Whether it’s university, college, or an apprenticeship – the UK needs more highly skilled people and the status quo isn’t delivering.

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John Cope, Senior Counsel at PLMR, former Executive Director at UCAS, and former Board Member of the apprenticeships regulator for England

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