The upgrade economy is breaking down, and tech can no longer pretend it’s progress

Companies arrive with shinier prototypes, louder screens, and marketing so amplified it feels like a mirage floating above the desert. Over time, newness came to stand in for innovation itself. Consumers were trained to believe that progress only counts when it arrives wrapped in new hardware.

CES mirrored the upgrade culture perfectly, with the message stayed the same: last year’s device is old, the new one is better, replace it, repeat.

We’ve seen this pattern before in food and fashion. Industries built around speed, scale, and constant replacement eventually expose their limits. Technology followed the same path.

Call it Fast Tech: a system optimised for rapid upgrades, short lifecycles, and the assumption that progress only matters if it’s new. That formula drove massive sales and even more massive waste. More than one billion smartphones have been sold every year since 2013.

By 2022, the world had 16 billion phones, and 5.3 billion became waste in a single year. Global e-waste reached 62 million metric tons, up 82% since 2010, with less than 22.3% formally recycled. E-waste is now growing five times faster than recycling.

This wasn’t a bug. It was the feature.

The environmental cost is no longer invisible. Digital technology already accounts for roughly 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions and could reach 14% by 2040.

Most of that impact happens before a device is ever turned on. In France, studies show that 78% of the environmental footprint of digital products comes from manufacturing, not use.

When innovation is defined by replacement, waste becomes predictable rather than accidental.

And this year in Las Vegas, the rhythm feels out of sync with reality.

CES 2026 is shaping up to be more of a showcase for software, ecosystems, and AI.

The industry’s biggest players are selling intelligence, services, and experiences that extend beyond the device itself, exposing an uncomfortable truth: if performance improves through software and cloud-based intelligence, why are millions of working devices declared obsolete every year?

Software policies now end device life long before hardware failure. Microsoft’s decision to end Windows 10 support puts over 400 million functioning computers at risk overnight.

Apple follows a similar pattern, steadily cutting support for widely used iPhones and turning capable devices into digital dead ends. This isn’t innovation. It’s institutionalised waste.

Consumers are responding rationally. New smartphone sales are slowing while refurbished markets grow. Policy is catching up too, with Right to Repair laws advancing across the U.S. and Europe, reframing longevity as innovation.

A new definition of progress is emerging. In a software-first world, value grows over time instead of resetting every upgrade cycle.

The next era of technology, Slow Tech, will reward durability, repair, and endurance. CES still matters, but its role must change. Progress isn’t about what you buy next. It’s about refusing to waste what already works.

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Thibaud Hug de Larauze is the founder and CEO of Back Market

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