Voters will have heard it all before - but retail offers could get the SNP over the majority line in May

John Swinney sent his delegates home happy from SNP conference. Now he will wait to see if that feeling translates to voters.

The Scottish election is just 54 days away and while his party looks likely of winning come May, his speech today showed he is taking no chances.

Retail offers aplenty - more walk in GP clinics were promised (up to 30 - only two are open right now), a brand new childcare system for kids from the age of nine months til the end of primary school (universal but not free universally, there will be a sliding scale based on income) and a new shared equity scheme for first time buyers (£10k for the first 10,000 to apply annually).

There will be some scepticism among Scots who have heard it all before. Both Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf pledged wraparound childcare, but nothing materialised beyond a few pilot projects. And what of the free bikes and free tech for every child, and brand new playparks in every community? What indeed.

There will also be huge questions about how it will all be paid for. The economic think tanks in Scotland keep warning of tough times ahead for the Scottish budget, and stark choices needing to be made when it comes to cuts.

John Swinney believes he can ride above that cynicism, and in fact believes such promises can win back those SNP voters who left in 2024 to vote for Keir Starmer’s Labour.

What the people in the room really wanted to hear though was independence. A subject he has in recent years been keeping at arms length. This was a speech full of it. Not only would an independent Scotland be back in Europe he claimed, but it would write a constitution which ban nuclear weapons and ban foreign militaries from using Scotland as a base if engaged in illegal wars.

All a bit previous and indeed presumptious. Who knows what Scots in a newly independent nation may choose to do? And of course NATO might have a say should that newly independent Scotland wish to remain.

And independence he said was closer than ever. That is one of those statements pro-independence supporters love to hear, the reality is somewhat different. For one, independence must surely have been the closest it’s ever been in 2014 when there was a referendum on the issue. For another, even John Swinney has set the bar high - he wants an SNP majority in May to have a mandate to ask the UK government for a second referendum.

Admittedly the SNP managed that feat, despite Scotland’s proportional representation voting system, in 2011. But that was put down to the SNP still being seen as a new government with a charismatic leader in Alex Salmond which had proved its competence as a minority government. This time they have been in charge for 20 years and there is public discontent with services, especially the NHS.

Still, they are polling far ahead of the opposition, at just over 30 per cent. The SNP’s problem will be turnout - so those retail policies come back into play.

But should they win, and indeed get that majority, it would be a hard sell to any Prime Minister that a referendum should be granted on such a low voter share.