When the votes are counted, Scotland's political map will likely be redrawn once again

And with one in four people saying they were unsure how they would vote the evening before polls opened, and a further 15 per cent saying they could well still change their minds when it came to being in the booth, predicting an outcome is like pinning the tail on the donkey.

There will be much written about the impact of today’s elections across the UK on Keir Starmer and the longevity of his premiership.

But in Scotland, while the SNP attempted to make this a vote on Starmer’s record, that idea rather failed to take hold; instead, this election is about change closer to home for Scots. And whether they want it or not.

Yet it doesn’t feel that it’s a day of judgement for John Swinney and the SNP’s record in government either - even if the opposition parties wanted it to be.

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The polls all point in one direction - an SNP win. The question is just how many MSPs the party will have returned to Holyrood. John Swinney himself has predicted, emphatically - in his LBC interview with Grado - that there will be 66.

But while a few polls have pointed to an outright majority, they have mostly put the SNP having anywhere between 43 and 62 of the parliament’s 129 MSPs.

The top end of that would be two fewer than in 2021, an election which saw Nicola Sturgeon almost clear the majority bar in the wake of the Covid pandemic during a time, probably not seen since the 2014 referendum, when the Scottish public were incredibly politically switched on.

That was in no small part to her daily TV briefings and, for some, the direct contrast with the chaotic administration of Boris Johnson. As a result, that election saw the highest turnout since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999, with 63.5% of the electorate casting a vote.

The disaffection felt by Scots in this election will see turnout fall far short of that. Still, coming as close to a majority as 62, if that proves accurate, this time round would be a remarkable result for a party which has been in government for 19 years, turned itself inside out through the gender wars, and then almost ate itself alive in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s unexpected resignation in 2023. And who can forget Operation Branchform and the charging of her husband, and former SNP CEO, Peter Murrell, with embezzlement.

By rights, the SNP should be up the proverbial creek with no paddle and sinking fast. The fact that it is not is testament to the strength of its core vote, the unshakeable belief of independence supporters who believe the SNP is the only political vehicle around to achieve that, and no matter what else might be wrong, that is the ultimate goal. Such supporters are dismissively referred to on social media as the “wheest for indy” crowd.

It is also, in truth, thanks to Labour failing spectacularly to deliver the change promised in 2024. Scots may have voted to kick out the Tories then, but they have been left feeling more than a little short-changed with many of the Labour government’s decisions, forcing them to rethink giving Anas Sarwar a chance at the title in Holyrood.

And yet failing to get that majority would ultimately be a disappointing result for John Swinney. No majority means no precedent-setting 2011 matching victory to demand a second independence referendum. That is the bar he set himself and his party. No-one made him do it - he alone decided this was the hurdle to clear to unlock the constitutional logjam he believes Scotland has found itself in since Scots voted No.

Which is why we’ve seen the goalposts on that shift slightly over recent weeks. He hasn’t said as much himself, but his advisers are quick to talk about having a “pro-independence majority”, i.e., the SNP and Scottish Greens making up the most MSPS, should be enough to get the powers for a referendum transferred from Westminster. But that has been the case in the last Parliament and came to nought. Without that majority there is no chance of any UK PM granting a Section 30 Order to pave the way to a referendum. Even with a majority is was unlikely in the extreme.

Would that make Starmer more unpopular in Scotland? His personal ratings are worse than Donald Trump's - and his Scottish leader, Sarwar, has already called on him to resign. Only those who pine for another go at asking Scots the independence question would be furious about a refusal. And if the turnout is low, and the SNP are voted back into government on around 35-38 per cent of the vote share, then any Prime Minister will easily shake it off, and point to the larger pro-union vote in Scotland, even if it is split among four different parties.

Yes four. It was bad enough for those keen on staying in the UK that their votes were diluted between three parties traditionally - Conservative, Labour and LibDem - now Reform has been added to the mix.

And in Malcolm Offord, Reform has a leader decked out in a suit cut from the Tories' Union flag tax-cutting cloth, with an added dash of working-class aspiration in the handkerchief and buttons, and all lined with a shiny appeal to the lowest common denominator. Bit of a cheek he's had to pinch anything really, given his six houses, five cars and six boats.

It is with Reform that Labour is now battling it out to be the second-largest party in Holyrood. And if the polls, which translate to the lower end of the scale for the SNP, are right, then that battle really becomes incredibly important.

The last few polls have given Anas Sarwar’s party a bounce, which might see them pip Reform at the post, but without a doubt, the arrival of Nigel Farage’s party in Holyrood, from basically a standing start, will send shockwaves through the political establishment.

How the party intends to work in opposition is anyone’s guess, but there are those in its ranks who have been clear that they will be there to disrupt.

The first sign we will get of how they intend to go about business will be the election of a new Presiding Officer next Thursday - and then the new First Minister the following week.

Will they disrupt things by putting Anas Sarwar into Bute House to stymie John Swinney and simultaneously put Sarwar in an invidious position? He's already said he will not countenance Reform support to become FM, but he has no control over how they vote, and would he really stand down from his chance to lead? I suspect not.

Reform would also then have him over a barrel when it comes to getting legislation, especially budgets, through. Unless the Scottish Greens at that point step in to support a Labour-led minority administration, which it would be supposed would be backed by the LibDems and possibly even the Tories on a case-by-case basis. Such an informal coalition could block Reform's ability to cause disruption.

All of this is, of course, pure speculation. Not a vote has yet been counted. But what is for sure is that the rise of Reform has cemented the SNP's position as the largest party in Holyrood, has undermined Labour's chances of winning, could well reduce the Tory party to a rump.

All of which could set the next Scottish Parliament on a path of five years of turmoil as the political map is redrawn in Scotland once again.