We need to be honest about London's crime wave

Over the last decade, knife crime in the capital has risen by 86.2 per cent – last year saw 16,789 offences, the highest recorded in modern times. Sixty-two per cent of those crimes were robberies – in a substantial number it was a mobile phone that was stolen. Last year in London, 81,000 mobile phones were stolen in robberies and so-called “theft person” offences (like pickpocketing or having a phone snatched out of your hand).

To many Londoners, it feels as though the Metropolitan Police is losing the fight against crime.

An insight revealed in a report published today by Policy Exchange has the potential to change that – our analysis shows that knife crime in the capital is highly geographically concentrated. Only 4 per cent of London’s neighbourhoods account for over a quarter of all knife crime; just 15 per cent of neighbourhoods account for over half of these offences. There are around 20 streets in London’s West End near Oxford Circus which had more knife crime than the lowest 15 per cent of the capital combined.

It is often presumed that when there are more police officers on patrol in an area, robbers and thieves simply move on to somewhere new – with the crime wave continuing in the new location. The evidence shows that this isn’t what happens. Criminals like to stick to the places they know – and if the police are there, offenders often choose to slink back under their rock.

By taking an intensive “zero-tolerance” approach in areas where crime and disorder are most concentrated, the police can significantly reduce the likelihood of people becoming victims of crime.

One of the key tactics the police should employ in these locations is stop-and-search. A study by Lawrence Sherman, one of the world’s preeminent criminologists, and Alexis Piquero examined 15 years of data consisting of 58,503 knife crime offences and 4.3 million stop-and-searches. Their detailed statistical analysis made clear the effectiveness of the tactic – they concluded bluntly that: “increased SSEs [Stop and Search Encounters] can significantly reduce knife-related injuries and homicides in public places”.

As the Chief Constable of Greater Manchester Police, Sir Stephen Watson, recently told Policy Exchange: “If you don’t back your officers to do stop and search, they will stop doing stop and search. And if you stop doing stop and search, you’ll see street robberies going up.” Watson has surged the number of stop and searches conducted by his officers in Manchester – and Robbery is down 7% partially as a result.

The argument most often mobilised by so-called “progressives” is that stop and search is “racist” in how it is used – it “disproportionately targets black people”, they say. And indeed 39.5% of those searched by the police in the capital between July 2023 and June 2025 were black – compared to only 13.5% of Londoners. That is where the lobbyists and sectional interest groups say the story ends.

But to successfully tackle the crime wave we’re facing we have to be honest about what is actually happening in our capital city.

Compared to the 13.5% Londoners who are black, 48.6% of robbery suspects between 2018 and 2023 were described as black by the victims; 43.5% of those charged with murder in London between 2003 and February 2024 were black; most tragically, 45.6% of non-domestic knife crime murder victims between 2003 and December 2024 were black.

Chris Donaldson, a former Metropolitan Police Inspector, founder member of the Black Police Association and Policy Exchange Senior Fellow said to me recently: “Ignoring the facts helps no-one – least of all the young black men who are vastly more likely to be murdered on our streets than any other group. If we’re to have a chance in the fight against crime then politicians of every stripe need to start backing police officers – we need more stop and search, not less.”

The law-abiding majority, across every demographic group and among supporters of every political party, is clear that they want to see a far tougher approach to crime and criminals.

Political leaders and police chiefs need to stop listening to the anti-police lobby groups and get frontline officers doing what we know works in the fight against crime.

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David Spencer is the Head of Crime and Justice at Policy Exchange and a former Detective Chief Inspector with the Metropolitan Police

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