Fears that 'super El Niño' could cause extra 450,000 deaths in six months next year
All you need to know about El Niño and what does it mean for the UK?
Up to 451,000 people might die in just six months from September 2026 to February 2027 as a result of a super El Niño, researchers have said.
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University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab said on Wednesday that there will be a 44% rise in the number of hot days experienced during the period, with East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa most at risk.
The publication came after the Met Office said that the El Niño exceeded previous records, with several weeks to go before it is to peak.
Professor Adam Scaife, at the Met Office, said: “We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event.
“The fact that it has already exceeded previous records, with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year, shows the enormity of this El Niño."
This is what the University of Chicago has said...
Read also: ‘Truly unprecedented’ El Nino breaks records weeks before peak, Met Office says
What is a super El Niño?
An El Niño effect is a phenomenon where the Pacific winds do not, as usual, push warmer waters to Asia, and instead the warmer waters come back to South America, which then stops colder water from rising along the South American coast.
This disrupts global weather and can increase rainfall around the world, causing flooding, or decrease rainfall and lead to drought.
The event happens every two to seven years, but the Met Office has warned that the "super" El Niño - also known as the Godzilla - could make 2027 the hottest year on record.
Why could it cause 450,00 extra deaths?
This El Niño is the most powerful since 1997 and will have worldwide effects, affecting everything from agriculture to water, energy demand, wildfire risk, and nature.
In 1997, there was widespread drought in Asia and flooding in South America, but 30 years later the effects could be even more devastating as we live in a much warmer world.
A 1982 El Niño caused a famine in Ethiopia, which led to 400,000 deaths, and this was before the effects of climate change were as severe as they are today.
University of Chicago researchers said: "The anomalously warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this El Niño event are a postcard from the future; while they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future.
"Mortality projections for the near term provide a signal of where we are headed if new adaptation investments do not materialise.
"The difference with climate change is that there is more time to undertake adaptations to save lives."
Which countries will be most affected?
University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab said Nigeria could have as many as 31,400, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600.
Other affected countries are set to be Brazil, India, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, among others.
What does it mean for the UK?
For the UK, it means an increased likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions during autumn and early winter, while later in the season, El Niño is associated with an increased risk of cold snaps.