What now for Andy Burnham and Labour as the King in the North marches on Westminster?
The question everyone in Westminster has been asking since Andy Burnham announced he was standing in the Makerfield by-election: what happens if and when he wins? How long until he challenges the prime minister?
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No one is under the illusion that the summit of Burnham’s ambitions is to be Makerfield’s representative in Parliament.
He gave up the job he has held for nine years for one reason only: to become Prime Minister.
Indeed, when asked at a televised hustings, the Mayor of Greater Manchester said: "I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running I would seek to join it."
So: now he has won. What happens next?
He will be sworn in as an MP in Westminster on Monday afternoon.
He was disqualified from being Greater Manchester mayor as soon as he was elected to Parliament. At that point, a “vacancy arose” for the mayoralty and the returning officer has to hold a by-election within 35 days. July 30 has been identified as the date the contest to replace Burnham will be held.
Some in Number Ten hope to delay any challenge to Sir Keir until that by-election is out of the way, keeping Starmer in post for another six weeks. The Prime Minister has already attempted to make this race Burnham’s problem, saying: "I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election.”
The PM’s allies say Burnham is the reason the race is taking place, so he has a responsibility to help the party retain the mayoralty. But supporters of Burnham point out that Labour would be far better placed to win the contest if their man has replaced Starmer in Number Ten.
The Prime Minister also suggested that he may offer his rival a job, saying earlier in the week: "I hope he wins the by-election and he'll play a big part in the Labour government." Sources close to the former Greater Manchester Mayor have already rebuffed this. “Andy hasn’t come back to Westminster just to improve his CV,” a Labour source said.
It is hard to see Burnham accepting any of the Prime Minister’s invitations. The question is, how soon will he wield the knife?
I have had numerous conversations over the last few weeks and heard multiple different plans. But the preferred plan, now that Burnham has received a resounding victory in Makerfield, is that he convinces the prime minister to step down and set out a timeline, rather than fight a challenge.
Starmer insists he will do no such thing. “I intend not to walk away from this, but to carry on with what I was elected to do, which is to serve this country and bring back the change that people desperately need in their lives.”
As the incumbent, he does not need the backing of 81 MPs to get on the ballot, unlike those with eyes on his position. LBC has been told Starmer has been getting a campaign team ready, and is being urged by his closest allies not to give up.
There is genuine scepticism, however, that when it actually comes to it, he will be able sustain the pressure. If, as has been reported, Cabinet ministers begin to resign – Keir Starmer may decide the game is up. And if he doesn’t step down? One Burnham source suggests it's "war". They say: "Stalking horse triggers, high profile cabinet resignation next week... a bloodbath. Either way, Keir is done."
A Whitehall source added, “Keir won’t want to be like Boris Johnson, clinging on with three Education Secretaries in a week. He won’t want to put the country through that chaos.”
Whether the PM fights or folds, we could be in for a leadership election regardless. Wes Streeting, the former Health Secretary, insists that he has the numbers to stand and has said there needs to be a “battle of ideas” rather than a coronation.
Having spent the past four weeks running a by-election campaign, preparing for a Labour leadership election, and prepping for entering government, some in Team Burnham say he needs more time to think about what his premiership might look like. It is likely that his opponents would jump on any attempts to delay, in an attempt to label the new MP for Makerfield a ‘bottler.’
Everything may move very quickly and could be bloodless, seamless even. But let’s not forget we are dealing with the Labour Party. They very rarely do things the easy way.
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Aggie Chambre is LBC's Deputy Political Editor.
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