Labour landslide could see Tories winning just 72 seats, poll finds, as Rishi Sunak's party faces 'electoral extinction'

16 June 2024, 09:15

Labour and the Conservatives will face off in the July 4 election
Labour and the Conservatives will face off in the July 4 election. Picture: Getty

By Kit Heren

The Conservatives could end up with just 72 seats after the next General Election, according to a new poll that also projected a Labour landslide.

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According to analysis by pollsters Survation's of 40,000 surveys, Labour are ahead in 456 seats, which if borne out on July 4, would give Sir Keir Starmer's party a majority of 262.

If the Tories won 72 seats, it would be less than half as good as their previous worst election, when they had 156 MPs after the 1906 election.

They won 365 seats at the 2019 vote. Labour won 203 in 2019, so would more than double their number of MPs if the model were correct.

The Conservatives have insisted that the only poll that matters is the election itself on July 4.

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Rishi Sunak
Rishi Sunak. Picture: Getty

Survation's projection had the Liberal Democrats on 56 seats, the SNP on 37, and Reform UK on seven.

In its interpretation of the findings, Survation said: "Since Farage's announcement to take over as leader of Reform UK, we've seen a rise in their vote share in national polling, and now we are seeing how this can result in seat gains.

"Unsurprisingly, Reform are making significant gains in places where the Conservatives are losing the most, and are currently the leading party by vote share in seven seats. Reform are also currently performing better than the Conservatives in 59 seats."

The Survation study for campaign group Best For Britain used the multilevel with poststratification (MRP) technique to model results in constituencies. Survation polled 42,269 people online or over the telephone between May 31 and June 13.

It is the first MRP analysis since Nigel Farage returned to the political frontline.

Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer. Picture: Getty

A separate poll also suggests bad news for the Conservatives.

The Savanta study for the Sunday Telegraph gave Labour a 25-point lead, with Sir Keir Starmer's party on 46%, up two from last week, and the Tories on 21%, down four points.

It is the lowest share that the Conservatives have had with the pollster under Mr Sunak.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: "Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party.

"The hopes of Conservative candidates are being shot to pieces by poll after poll showing the Conservative Party in increasingly dire straits - and we're only halfway through the campaign.

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"There's a real sense that things could still get worse for the Conservatives, and with postal votes about to drop through millions of letterboxes, time is already close to running out for Rishi Sunak."

Reform UK were on 13%, up three points, the Liberal Democrats up two points on 11%, the Greens up one point on 5% and the SNP down one on 2%.

Savanta surveyed 2,045 UK adults from June 12-14.

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