'Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable' Putin declares in menacing new speech

18 January 2023, 14:04 | Updated: 18 January 2023, 14:39

Vladimir Putin has claimed Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable despite a year of military failures.

He claimed he will yet declare victory over Kyiv on a day when speculation mounted over whether he would announced a mobilisation or formally declare war on Ukraine.

The 70-year-old, whose personal fortunes are now tied to whether Russia can succeed in the invasion he declared and has almost completely botched, instead resorted to his usual bellicose rhetoric during a speech to weapons factory workers as he marked the breaking of the Nazi siege of Leningrad - now St Petersburg - on Wednesday.

"Victory is assured, I have no doubt about it," he declared.

"The unity and solidarity of the Russian people, the courage and heroism of our fighters and, of course, the work of the military-industrial sector will secure victory."

Read more: Russia threatens to 'burn' Britain's Challenger 2 tanks sent to Ukraine

However, he did not call up more men to serve in the bloody war, which has seen tens of thousands of Russian soldiers killed or wounded.

The last mobilisation, which saw 300,000 men ordered to serve, led to young men fleeing the country in fear of being given a rusty on Kalashnikov and sent to the frozen steppes of Ukraine.

There were also suggestion Putin might declare war formally. He has only referred to it, euphemistically, as a special military operation to oust the leadership and protect people in the Donbas - which he claims have been oppressed - despite the large scale invasion.

As protests broke out at the attack within Russia, Putin imposed laws outlawing any description of the invasion as a "war". But officially declaring it could pave the way to a wider mobilisation of Russia's manpower and industry.

"Large-scale combat operations involving heavy weapons, artillery, tanks and aircraft haven't stopped in Donbas since 2014," Putin said in his speech, referring to when Russia seized Crimea illegally and then began supporting rebels in the east of Ukraine as they fought against Kyiv.

"All that we are doing today, as part of the special military operation, is an attempt to stop this war. This is the meaning of our operation - protecting people who live on those territories."

He claimed he had tried to negotiate an end but was "duped and cheated" - a characterisation the Western nations will take issue with, given their view that Russia has only used ceasefires and talks to prepare new assaults.

Putin again referenced Ukraine as being a part of Russia - a view that has led observers to conclude his invasion was designed to subjugate it to Moscow, like it was during the Soviet Union or periods of the old Russian Empire.

Read more: Russia-linked hackers 'behind Royal Mail attack'

The symbolism of the speech about the victory over Hitler's army will not be lost on many as the Kremlin tries to justify its war of aggression against Ukraine by baselessly claiming it is fighting Nazis.

Having needlessly chosen to invade, and failing to take over the country in a matter of days as he expected, Putin is desperately trying to ensure his military avoids further setbacks and keep his population and elites onside.

Ukraine recaptured swathes of territory from Russia, including Kherson and chunks of the Kharkiv region before a stalemate began over winter.

Russia has thrown everything at the salt mine town of Soledar and Bakhmut. But even the apparent capture of Soledar has exposed Moscow's frailties, with the mercenary Wagner Group claiming credit while the Kremlin has trumpeted the impact of regular forces in the operation.

There is speculation whether Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, is emerging as a serious influence and competitor to Putin.

Nato has warned Putin is now bracing himself for a long term conflict, hoping he can still batter Ukraine into submission. His previous bet that the West would stop supporting Kyiv due to energy prices did not pay off, instead leaving them less reliant on Russian gas and making his economy even more isolated and challenged under crippling sanctions.

Instead, Nato countries and other friends of Ukraine continue to support its defence and counterattacks. Britain has announced a small squadron of Challenger 2 tanks will be dispatched, along with a number of AS-90 self-propelled howitzers.