How Iran could hit back: The growing threat to Western bases as Israeli strikes on Tehran escalate
18 June 2025, 14:51 | Updated: 19 June 2025, 00:17
As tensions between Israel and Iran spiral further into open confrontation, the United Kingdom and the United States now find themselves in Tehran’s crosshairs.
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With Israeli jets continuing to hammer Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure in a campaign dubbed Operation Rising Lion, Iran has warned that any Western intervention in support of Tel Aviv will be met with force—potentially striking US and British forces across the Middle East.
The threat is far from idle. British and American military installations across the region are well within range of Iran’s growing arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles.
Iranian state media, echoing a warning from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has explicitly threatened British, US, and French assets in the region if those nations aid Israel in what Tehran describes as an existential campaign to overthrow its regime.
Strategic Targets in the Line of Fire
Britain, which has spent the last decade quietly rebuilding its post-Cold War military presence in the region, has now found its regional footprint a potential liability.
Among the most exposed are:
- RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus: Britain’s primary offensive airbase in the region, and now home to a bolstered Typhoon jet presence.
- UK Naval Support Facility in Bahrain: A Royal Navy base hosting minehunters and a frigate, previously known as HMS Jufair.
- Port of Al Duqm, Oman: A deep-water logistics hub capable of hosting UK aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines.
- Al Udeid, Qatar: A shared airbase with US Central Command, from which RAF jets operate.
- Al Minhad, UAE: A permanent British military presence established in 2023.
- Smaller deployments in Iraq, Jordan, and the Red Sea, largely tied to Operation Shader and maritime security.
Each of these locations sits within range of Iranian missiles, including the sophisticated Haj Qasem—a navigable ballistic missile designed to defeat interception systems like America’s Patriot or Israel’s Arrow platforms.
A Missile Arsenal with Reach
Iran’s ballistic missile programme is central to its deterrence strategy. It has proven time and again that it can deliver precision strikes on military targets.
During recent skirmishes, Israel has claimed to destroy around a third of Iran’s pre-war missile stockpile. But that still leaves Tehran with hundreds of warheads and drones with the capacity to escalate across multiple fronts.
According to US intelligence, Iran has already positioned missiles for rapid deployment against US troops in Iraq. From there, it could quickly widen its target set to include British bases across the Gulf and Mediterranean.
The threat doesn’t end with conventional weapons. Iran has long pursued asymmetric tactics—including cyber attacks, maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and proxy warfare via groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Iranian-backed cells have even been accused of plotting against targets on British soil.
Britain’s Defence Dilemma
The UK, despite its advanced military capabilities, faces significant challenges in defending against a direct Iranian strike.
Ballistic missile defence remains a critical vulnerability. While Britain can deploy Typhoons to intercept drones or cruise missiles, it lacks a dedicated land-based anti-ballistic missile system in the region. RAF Akrotiri may soon be reinforced with a Sky Sabre battery—a state-of-the-art interceptor—but that system is not designed to stop ballistic threats.
The Royal Navy’s Type 45 destroyers, equipped with the Sea Viper missile defence system, are the UK’s only credible shield against such threats. But only a fraction of the fleet is operational at any one time due to maintenance issues and refits. At the end of last year, just two of the six vessels were active.
In any sustained missile exchange, the UK would be reliant on American and allied systems—such as the Patriots operated by Qatar and the UAE—to defend shared bases like Al Udeid.
The Risk of Escalation
While the UK government has been careful not to be seen as a direct participant in Israel’s campaign, it has taken precautions. Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed over the weekend that RAF assets had been repositioned to the Middle East in response to the deteriorating situation.
Yet even this precaution risks inflaming tensions. As former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger warned, a miscalculation or provocation—whether on the streets of London or in the skies above Syria—could escalate the conflict dramatically.
A major concern remains Tehran’s willingness to “go all in” if the regime sees its survival at stake. That could include:
- Missile strikes on bases in Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Cyprus or Oman
- Maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—where British minehunters would need additional protection
- Cyber attacks and economic sabotage
- Terrorist plots against Western targets at home or abroad
The Fordow Flashpoint
If Donald Trump, who has publicly downplayed negotiations with Tehran, authorises direct US involvement, the stakes grow even higher. Analysts believe Trump’s primary target would be Fordow—a heavily fortified nuclear enrichment site buried deep beneath a mountain.
Only the US has the means to destroy it: the GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 13.6-tonne bomb capable of piercing 60 metres of reinforced concrete. If deployed, such a strike could mark a point of no return—triggering an all-out regional conflict and compelling Iran to retaliate directly against British and American assets.
The Fragile Balance
Iran’s leadership knows that direct war with the US or UK would be costly. But pride, domestic pressure, and the perception of regime survival may yet drive them to act. As Dr Alex Leveringhaus of the University of Surrey puts it: “Israel’s strategy increasingly looks like one of regime change. But regime change is extraordinarily hard to accomplish—especially when you don’t know who’s replacing the current government.”
For Britain, the calculus is just as murky. Staying out of the fight may not be enough to avoid being drawn in. And with limited missile defences and a growing list of potential targets, UK forces in the Middle East find themselves vulnerable at a time of extraordinary geopolitical volatility.
Whether Tehran is bluffing or genuinely preparing for escalation, one thing is clear: in this increasingly combustible conflict, the UK is not on the sidelines—it’s already in the blast radius.
