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Russia and China will ‘soon’ be able to pinpoint Britain’s nuclear subs with advanced drones, warns US general
6 May 2025, 09:34 | Updated: 6 May 2025, 10:59
Britain's nuclear subs ‘will be detectable within years’ by hostile states, a US general has warned - as it emerges the UK is updating its Cold War plans in preparation for attack
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General James E. Rainey of the United States Army Futures Command told a defence lecture in London last week that the West ‘cannot assume it will have the same advantages of remaining hidden’ the next time it goes to war.
Speaking at the annual Kermit Roosevelt lecture, the Commanding General said technological advances mean hostile states like China and Russia will ‘soon’ be able to find submarines with accuracy - using advanced under sea drones.
It comes as the Telegraph reports that the Prime Minister is preparing plans for what the British response to a Russian attack would look like, with Keir Starmer asking that 20-year-old contingency plans be updated.
For decades, nuclear submarines have been able to go undetected because they are submerged at depths where they can’t be tracked by existing technologies and communications are largely cut off during deployment.
But General Rainey said rapidly advancing research could mean the secret weapon, used by the UK, US and France, will be at risk within ‘a few years’ - despite an estimated £41 billion being spent on new Dreadnought class submarines in Barrow-in-Furness.
"This is the most frightening to me," he said.
"Our forces should assume that they're going to operate under constant observation. If you ask people when they think they'll be able to sense submarines underwater, then combined with AI they'll tell you we're a couple of years away from that capability so all that we've learned about manoeuvre in terms of using terrain and hiding from the enemy.
"I do not think we should assume that advantage the next time we go to war."
Rear Admiral Chris Parry said: "We need to be very worried about the number of totalitarian states that seek to use military means to achieve their geopolitical objectives and I’m afraid strategically we have been rather blind to some of these threats.
"The UK is wide open to a drone attack, hypersonic and ballistic attack, our infrastructure is barely protected at all and our cyber defence is laughable. It's because most governments operate with wishful thinking."
Defending the renewal of the nuclear submarines, though, he said: "Within five years, everyone and everything on this planet is going to be detectable - this is not something that is new - and the new Dreadnought submarines will take that into account.
"They’ll have various decoy cloaking and acoustic measures that will keep them safe; we just have to minimise the risk."
The Ministry of Defence is preparing to release the government’s Strategic Defence Review, which is expected to include ‘options to reinforce homeland security’ as it examines the state of Britain’s Armed Forces.
The UK has been threatened with direct action by the Kremlin on several occasions, over its support for Ukraine and suggestion that British troops could be used to maintain peace after the war.
The UK's nuclear submarines
Four of the UK's nine submarines are Vanguard class ballistic missiles submarines that comprise the nation's primary submarine-based nuclear deterrent.
Each submarine is armed with 16 UGM-133 Trident II nuclear missiles.
A Vanguard-class submarine has a crew of 130-140 personnel.
The submarine class had an originally intended service life of 25 years.
However, the class is scheduled to be replaced starting in the early 2030s with the Dreadnought-class submarine.
HMS Vanguard (S28)
- Launched 1992.
- Intended life span 2017.
- Lead boat of her class.
HMS Vengeance
- Launched 1998.
- Intended life span 2023.
- In March 2024, Vengeance completed a 201-day deployment - the second-longest submarine deployment in the Royal Navy's history.
HMS Victorious
- Launched 1993.
- Intended life span 2018.
HMS Vigilant
- Launched 1995
- Intended life span 2020.
The UK’s Royal Navy currently operates nine submarines, with the United States, France, Russia, China and India maintaining their own fleets.
Last month, Chinese researchers revealed that they had tested new drone-mounted sensors which can sniff out hostile vessels in deep water, which until now have been able to remain undetected.
A report said the magnetic sensors could allow faster and more accurate detection of submarines and underwater features, although it noted that further tests were needed in harsher conditions.
Professor Paul Rogers, emeritus professor of peace studies at Bradford University, told LBC: “It’s been a major development in undersea warfare, and it feels like we’re sleepwalking into a much more dangerous era.
“My personal view is that it’s not worth us investing in our nuclear trident anymore - the expenditure is exorbitant. In Britain they’re much more to do with our sense of history than our practical ability.
“In the last 30 years we’ve really missed the opportunity to go beyond a nuclear future and this is time for a serious wakeup call and a proper reconsideration of defence policy.
“I’m not sure we’re going to get that in the one that’s going to be published in a few weeks’ time.”
In his latest threat assessment, the head of MI5 Ken McCallum said the UK was facing a growing threat of ‘plot after plot’ from hostile states - including Russia, China and Iran.
“The shifts underneath [these threats] create the most complex environment we’ve ever seen,” he said, in October 2024.
The spy chief added: “We have been growing our efforts against heightened state aggression. In just the last year, the number of state threat investigations we’ve been running has shot up by 48%.”
He also revealed a growing number of attempts by Iran to target people in the UK, with more than 20 plots since January 2022.
This week, thousands of people are commemorating the 80th anniversary of VE Day, when the UK and its allied forces, including the Soviet Union declared victory in Europe.
NATO members are now scrambling to bolster support for Ukraine as it fights Russia in a war which some have feared could expand further in Europe.
A Government spokesman said: “The UK has robust plans in place for a range of potential emergencies that have been developed and tested over many years.”
