After burning Labour’s boats on immigration, Keir Starmer has made a rod for his own back, writes Nadhim Zahawi
14 May 2025, 07:26
Keir Starmer's sentiment is exactly right, but after burning Labour’s boats on the issue of immigration, he has made a rod for his own back.
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If he doesn’t now reduce immigration by a very large margin before the next election, he has provably failed against a mission he has very publicly set himself. With a huge majority and plenty of time, there are no excuses and nowhere left to hide. The Conservatives and Reform will be waiting to pounce on such failure. It is one that could prove fatal.
What should he do, then, to deliver the kinds of decreases necessary? Here are a few ideas.
Firstly, acknowledge that the white paper set out will not achieve anything like the reduction he has talked about. To take one example, pushing Indefinite Leave to Remain to 10 years, not 5, is good, but the fact that it won’t apply to people already here is weak. It’s no disincentive, and, as analysis from Sam Bidwell at the Adam Smith Institute has pointed out, it will also cost many, many billions in entitlements for people who will not contribute enough to pay their way. So his current measures should be stronger and quicker.
Secondly, reintroduce a proper deterrent! The Rwanda scheme was already starting to strike fear into the hearts of the gangs and the illegal immigrants crossing. The public won’t forget about illegal immigration, and with the US and other nations looking at third-country schemes, Starmer should swallow his pride and bring it back.
Thirdly, introduce a quality over quantity approach to migration to show his leftie flank he’s not against the right kind of people coming here. Copying the Trump ‘Gold Card’, even at a more modest cost, and targeting 10% of the 37 million the US has estimated could buy the Gold Card, could bring in huge amounts of money as a new revenue source. This could be used to pay for the tax breaks to incentivise labour-intensive companies to automate their sectors, and to pay Brits better wages to fill the jobs they currently won’t.
Fourthly, and Starmer really won’t like this, he needs to get real on the imposition that the ECHR, and its expressions in domestic statute, causes. The system has obviously become a laughingstock, with criminals avoiding deportation for ludicrous reasons. If the system won’t respond to Prime Ministerial pressure, the system needs to go.
Finally, and this one he might, Starmer needs to ignore the pressure from labour-intensive businesses pushing for high immigration. Mass migration has depressed wages enormously, and this was a strong driver of public support for Brexit. By pushing the cost onto businesses (which have not had to pay for the externalities of supporting dependents, extra crime and capital stock cost, etc), he can win working class support and soothe his base.
It's a massive challenge, and will make or break his premiership. For the sake of the country, I wish him luck.
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Nadhim Zahawi is the former Chairman of the Conservative Party, and was formerly Chancellor and Secretary of State for Education.
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