We can’t change the outcome in the Middle East - but we can avoid making Britain a target

24 June 2025, 15:10 | Updated: 24 June 2025, 15:13

The conflict between Iran and Israel is understandably generating a lot of anxiety, not only for its potential to destabilise the Middle East, but also for the effect it may have on the UK.

The war itself remains contained to the region for now, but its implications for domestic extremism in the UK are worth exploring.

One of the key reasons why the Iran-Israel conflict has not yet ignited a large wave of extremist Islamist mobilisation is the sectarian nature of the dispute. Iran is a Shia-majority country, and the current regime represents a form of Shia-ism that is at odds with the Sunni Islam that most British Muslims adhere to.

Iran is often viewed with suspicion by Sunni Islamists due to its religious orientation, geopolitical alliances, and perceived use of sectarian militias to project power. As a result, the Iran-Israel war does not offer the same ideological rallying point for Sunni extremists in the UK.

The conflict can still ignite broader anti-Israel and anti-Western sentiment, especially if the war intensifies, encompassing Sunni factions in the region,  with large numbers of civilian casualties. While this could cause anger and protests, it is still unlikely to lead to the war becoming an ideological rallying point in the way that the Iraq War was.

However, there is a concerning pattern in which Middle East conflicts act as catalysts for spikes in hate crimes, particularly antisemitic and, at times, anti-Muslim incidents too. The Iran-Israel war has exacerbated this risk. Jewish schools, synagogues, and community centres have been forced to increase security, while the Community Security Trust (CST) has reported record levels of incidents linked to Middle East tensions.

The threat comes from multiple directions. Islamist extremists have a long history of targeting Jewish communities. Far-right actors, some of whom view Jewish people as proxies for broader geopolitical grievances, may also see the war as justification for their own attacks or propaganda campaigns. In this environment, even those without direct ties to organised extremism may feel emboldened to act violently.

Another dimension of the Iran-Israel war that cannot be overlooked is the threat posed by Iranian operatives on British soil. The security agencies have publicly confirmed that Iran has been behind multiple plots targeting dissidents, Jewish sites, and Israeli interests in the UK. Since early 2022, MI5 has identified at least 20 credible threats linked to Iran, including surveillance of targets, attempted kidnappings, and potential assassinations.

One of the most serious Iran-linked threats happened as recently as last month, when the authorities arrested five Iranian nationals suspected of plotting an attack on the Israeli embassy in London. Intelligence sources linked the foiled plot to a covert branch of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) known for orchestrating foreign operations, including surveillance and assassination attempts. The arrests, made in coordinated raids across multiple cities, reignited debate over whether the UK should formally proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organisation.

But this was not an isolated incident. Since early 2022, intelligence services have disrupted at least 15 plots linked to Iran, including a 2023 case where MI5 uncovered an attempt to kidnap or even assassinate a British Iranian dissident in London. The plan, attributed to IRGC proxies, involved surveillance of the target's home and family, and was foiled just before execution.

These incidents illustrate a broader pattern of Iran exporting its tactics abroad, using both direct operatives and criminal intermediaries to intimidate, silence, or harm those deemed hostile to the regime. While these activities may appear distinct from domestic terrorism in the traditional sense, they demonstrate Iran’s capacity and willingness to carry out politically motivated violence on UK territory.

That capability could escalate further if the UK aligns too closely with Israel in the current war.

At present, Britain’s role in the Iran-Israel conflict has been limited to diplomatic posturing and quiet intelligence cooperation with allies. However, any shift, such as overt military support for Israel or sanctions that appear to escalate the conflict, could dramatically reshape the domestic extremism picture.

Given the overwhelming firepower Israel and the US have in the region, it would be wiser for the UK not to get involved since (a) our involvement would have limited impact and (b) we risk Iranian attacks on British citizens and interests globally. However, it would also be cowardly not to support the Iranian opposition at a time like this, at least morally if not logistically.

They say the Middle East is the opposite of Las Vegas; what happens there does not stay there. With that in mind, let’s hope the conflict is resolved swiftly and we manage to stay out of it.

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Ghaffar Hussain is a counter-extremism expert and former Prevent officer.

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