Iran's nuclear threat is the real deal - don't compare it to the search for WMDs in Iraq
19 June 2025, 09:00
President Trump is facing the most consequential decision of both of his presidencies- whether or not the US enters the Israeli preventive war against Iran.
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As we await Trump’s decision, it is important to note that Israeli resolve and operational successes to date are likely influencing Trump’s decision making. Israel has enjoyed a remarkable string of tactical victories- eliminating the leadership of the Iranian military and intelligence establishments, plus killing the top echelon of Iranian nuclear scientists.
Trump revels in success, and he likely has been mesmerised by what Israel has accomplished. The goal of the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program is close at hand, and the addition of US Air Force B-2 aircraft armed with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs to hit the Fordo enrichment site in Iran could be decisive in the conflict.
In addition, Israel will not stop until the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated. After the October 7 debacle, they believe there is no margin for analytic errors regarding the Iranian nuclear program. In many ways, their military doctrine may have changed quite dramatically. So, Israel is far more inclined to take action rather than quibble with how many months or years it will take for Iran to obtain a weapon. Trump knows that the Israelis are all-in. Let’s not forget that Israel took action in 1981 in Iraq and 2007 in Syria, eliminating nuclear threats in the face of US opposition.
Much has been made of a reported delta between US and Israeli intelligence assessments on how quickly the Iranians may develop the bomb. First, that is actually not unusual, on a variety of issues, in the intelligence world. And as noted above, Israel does not particularly care what we think, given the existential threat of the Iranian nuclear program.
That said, the intelligence picture regarding the Iranian nuclear program is nothing like the fiasco over the lack of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Many in the media are howling about this. I was there in Iraq, searching for WMD. There wasn’t any, anywhere. In this case, the Iranian nuclear program is the real deal, a threat, regardless of disputes over the timeline for a breakout capability. The two cases are apples and oranges.
Let’s not forget who the Iranian regime is. Some noted atrocities include seizing the US embassy in Iran and holding US hostages for 444 days, supporting proxies that destroyed our embassy in Lebanon and killed US military peacekeepers there, direct Iranian sponsored attacks against US troops in Iraq killing hundreds of US servicemen, their attempting to kill President Trump and former members of his national security team, and helping then-Syrian president Assad kill tens of thousands of Syrians.
The Iranian regime is a sworn enemy of the US and Israel and a thorn to all of our allies. We should be unapologetic in hoping that the US and Israel can provide a powerful blow to the Iranian nuclear program. The rent is long overdue.
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Marc Polymeropoulos served 26 years in the CIA and retired at the Senior Intelligence Service in 2019. He is the co-host with Amber Rudd and Mark Urban of “The Crisis Room” Podcast on Global Player.
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