Reform had a good night in England, but discontent doesn’t stop at the border
2 May 2025, 16:55 | Updated: 2 May 2025, 17:09
Scottish politics is holding its breath.
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The remarkable results for Nigel Farage and his Reform UK party, has turned theoretical opinion polling into hard political reality.
Taking votes from both the Conservatives and Labour - overturning a massive 15,000 Labour majority in Runcorn - shows that Reform is not another flash-in-the-pan UKIP or Brexit party, it is a whole lot more; tapping into an economic discontent felt by voters the length and breadth of England.
And that discontent doesn’t stop at the border.
We know that Farage has his eye on winning the Welsh elections next year, and while in Scotland Reform polls around half the numbers as it does in England (14% to 25% down south) if that support is sustained until next May, then it could see the party send double-figure MSPs into Holyrood.
It could even become a kingmaker party, deciding just who will be the next First Minister.
That all sounded fanciful when Richard Tice was punting such a line a few months ago. Not so much now.
Reform only has around 10 councillors in Scotland at present, defectors in the main from the Scottish Conservatives, but even that has had an impact on the political landscape.
Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay is shifting his party further right, with pitches to “common sense”, cutting government waste, and rolling back support for climate change targets.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has similarly gone on the attack on quango numbers, wanting to take the axe to health boards, and branding the SNP-led Scottish Government as wasteful with taxpayers money.
The Tories problem is that without the threat of independence, they seem to offer nothing much to voters whose memories don’t have to be too long to remember life under a UK Conservative government, while for Labour, the support given at last year’s General Election has ebbed away thanks to domestic policy decisions by Keir Starmer.
For John Swinney’s SNP, and indeed the Scottish Greens, the progress of Reform has seen them brand Farage et al as “far right” - a label Reform rejects - and call for Scotland’s civic society, trade unions, and politicians to work together to defeat the rise of “divisive ideology”.
Their problem however is many voters have lost faith with them, accusing them of perpetuating the kind of division they condemn, and indeed, in the case of the Greens being just as extreme, if at the opposite end of the political pole to Reform.
Of course for them, the rise of Reform may well allow them to reinvigorate their independence campaign - the threat of a PM Farage could be enough to scare the horses over the line.
What is more immediately likely though is that Reform taking votes from both the Tories and Labour will allow the SNP to continue its dominance - we could see that play out in the Hamilton and Larkhall by-election in June - and win a record breaking fifth Scottish election.
But it would be another minority government, and if Reform’s support in Scotland is sustained, then they could end up with between 10 and 15 MSPs next year which would have a huge effect on Holyrood.
All of this will be being weighed up carefully by all parties right now. If we thought last night was a watershed moment in UK politics, it could be we ain’t seen nothing yet.
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