As Russia doubles down, Britain must take advantage of its opportunity

27 May 2025, 17:37 | Updated: 27 May 2025, 17:42

As Prime Minister Keir Starmer engages with EU leaders on European defence, it is significant to note that Russia is currently outspending the entirety of Europe on defence.

Coming to an eyewatering $145 billion, or 6.5% of its GDP and about a third of its government budget, Russia’s massive defence expenditure demonstrates that the country’s economic decline is less important to its leaders than its military build-up.

It is this expenditure that should rally the U.K. into revitalising its military industrial supply chains, while leading Europe towards re-armament.

Three years of full-scale invasion into Ukraine are exerting an increasingly dire economic toll on Vladimir Putin’s economy.

As Russia’s military spending has increased, its corporate debt has risen by 71 percent since 2022, with the government compelling private banks to make defence-related loans on its behalf.

This has funded the war effort, but at the cost of soaring inflation, hitting 9.52 percent last year and necessitating an interest rate of 21 percent.

As oil prices crater, experts are beginning to predict economic collapse in Russia within the next year. 

Optimists may hope that the economically destructive consequences of Putin’s war in Ukraine would deter him from continuing it.

This is unfortunately misguided.

As an autocrat, Putin is able to pursue devastating policies without popular accountability, and his populace is one that routinely expects and weathers hardship.

The war allows Putin to stay in power, which is every autocrat’s one and only aim. 

There are also about 10% of working age Russians, circa 4.5 million people, employed by the military and security services and in war related manufacturing, who greatly benefit from this war financially. 

Together with their dependents these circa 20 mln people are the backbone of Putin’s support in this war. 

The practicalities of fighting a war with a failing economy will eventually catch up to Putin, but this could take years, and the damage he could do to Ukraine and Europe in the meantime cannot be understated.

To the contrary, an increasingly desperate Putin may make even more aggressive moves directly against Europe, as he is already doing by attacking Britain’s and its allies’ deep-sea cables and critical infrastructure.

As this threat rises, Britain needs to stand up for itself and support Europe in its fight.

Britain is already one of Europe’s most dependable defence manufacturers and military investors, making it among the best-positioned countries in the region to rebuild its defence production supply chains.

The government is moving in the right direction with its 2.5 percent defence spending commitment, but more is needed to counter a Russian opponent so wholly devoted to territorial aggression and intimidation with no care for its people or their quality of life.

The benefits go beyond European security – an investment in Britain’s defence manufacturing capabilities is a short-term cost that will pay off immensely for years to come.

As the U.S. steps away from the global stage, countries in Europe and Asia will be on the lookout for a new, reliable partner from which to source weaponry. 

The scientific and technological research and development generated by the defence industry will find its applications in civilian manufacturing and services, just like countless other past military innovations from penicillin to the internet. 

Defence R&D has always been a supercharged booster for technological progress and it could help Britain rebuild its global technological and scientific leadership.  

The British defence sector has clearly recognised this opportunity, as it pushes for Britain to be part of the EU’s €150 billion defence fund.

Whether producing munitions for its own military or for export, Britain could use this crisis to deliver a positive shock to its economy, breathing life into its manufacturing and applied science sector and sparking growth at a time when tariffs and trade wars threaten to drag the country further into economic distress.

Even as Britain and its allies attempt to rise to this moment, this will not be a fair fight against Russia, an opponent willing to destroy its own economy to support its war of aggression.

But Russia’s weaknesses on the battlefield remain significant, as its cruise missiles suffer high failure rates, its fighter jets prove incapable of maintaining air superiority, and it is simply running out of people who can fight. 

As much money as Russia funnels into its military, the technological differential between its forces and Western-supported Ukraine remains a key advantage.

Britain and Europe can again cooperate here, imposing sanctions to ensure dual-use technologies do not make their way into Russia. 

Recent geopolitical mayhem has also opened a door to a very different dialogue with China, which would be very receptive to European economic cooperation. 

Chinese support for European sanctions would land a near fatal blow to Putin. Only from a position of strength can the U.K. and Europe defend themselves and prevent any further aggression from Russia. 

War in Ukraine is Putin’s Achilles heel and he knows it. 

When sooner or later he loses it, he will himself be destroyed.

Britain must take this opportunity to help lead the way to victory.

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